Pass-heavy Tigers still winning first downs
10/04/2024
By Hunt Palmer
The best offenses run and throw the ball effectively.
Triple-option teams with limited quarterbacks don’t win championships anymore, and an air-raid team never has. The game has undoubtedly shifted toward the passing game more and more over the last 20 years, but running game is still vital to success.
LSU is still searching for that balance in its 2024 offense.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has piloted the offense excellently thorough five games. He leads college football in completions, and LSU has scored 34 or more in its last four games.
Still, the Tigers rank second in the SEC in passing offense and 14th in rushing. The balance isn’t there to this point.
No down better illustrates a team’s identity that first down. Second down is dictated by the outcome of first down, and the same goes for third down. First down gives an offensive coordinator a full deck to play with.
Against USC, the Tigers stayed committed to running the ball on first down even though success was hard to come by. LSU ran the ball on 17 first down plays and threw it on 12. Since then, that balance has tilted heavily the other way.
In wins over Nicholls, South Carolina, UCLA and South Alabama, LSU has called 127 first down plays outside of “garbage time” which we’ll term after 42-10 versus South Alabama. Of those 127 plays, 45 have been runs and 82 have been passes.
That’s bordering 2-to-1.
Now, it would be easy to look at that number and be taken aback. You could call LSU predictable in that way. Teams can pin their collective ears back and come get Nussmeier on first downs.
Defensive coordinators may make that decision, but it hasn’t worked just yet. Perhaps the reason for these splits is because the passing game has worked?
On 93 first down passes this season, LSU averages 9.2 yards per play. That’s third in the country behind Ole Miss and TCU. Even if you remove the 71-yard swing pass to Caden Durham on the first play from scrimmage, against South Alabama, LSU still averages 8.6 yards per play on first down throws.
While the running game hasn’t been as strong, it hasn’t necessarily been a weakness. The Tigers average 5.44 yards per rush on first down. That’s 58th in the county. Durham has an 86-yarder in there, too. If it’s removed, the number moves to 4.3 yards per carry which is plenty good enough against SEC competition. yes, the Tigers have played two lower-level opponents, but the LSU did run for 5.2 yards per carry on first down at South Carolina who ranks sixth in the conference in run defense.
The Tiger offense still has its issues in short yardage situations like 3rd and 4th and 1 as well as goalline snaps. But the early downs have been friendly to LSU. Because of that the Tigers are 13th in America in third down conversions. Much of that is due to the fact that LSU has only faced 3rd and nine or more yards eight times all season. LSU’s defense forced South Carolina into six such spots in one game three weeks ago.
Brian Kelly and Joe Sloan will certainly continue to stress the importance of developing the running game, but right now LSU’s offense is staying ahead of the chains and scoring points.
