Starting Five: Bursting bubbles and upset specials
03/04/2025
By Chris Marler
Auburn might have already locked up the regular season SEC title, but in the final week of the regular season, every team not named LSU or South Carolina is fighting for seeding or their NCAA Tournament lives. We’re looking at you Sooners and Longhorns (It had to be the newbies). Don’t let us down.
- What took so long?
It took nine weeks, but the schedulers finally did something that makes too much sense. There are eight games with five on Tuesday and the setup is the best its been since league play started in January.
Each of the five games start one hour apart. That’s right, an hour apart and not at the same exact time or stacked on top of each other between 6 and 8 PM CT like the schedule makers have done all season long. Admittedly a 10 PM ET start is a little past most people’s bedtime on a Tuesday, but games starting at 6 PM and then every hour on the hour after in a four hour window is exactly how the schedule should’ve been set up all year.
- Bubble Teams and Must wins
The same four bubble teams from last week are once again on the bubble this week. However this week the security blanket for each team is much different. Georgia was all the way on the next four out and essentially sitting at No. 74 looking to make the field of 68. This week the Dawgs are a part of the Last four byes group and essentially at No. 63.
The concern now shifts to the conference newcomers as Oklahoma and Texas are listed on the first four out. Oklahoma is the first team out, while Texas is fourth after a 16 point home loss to Georgia this past Saturday.
It won’t get any easier for the group, as three of the four are on the road in the midweek. The only team with a home game is Oklahoma, and they get a top 15 Missouri team in Norman.
- Will Auburn take their foot off the gas?
Auburn clinched the outright SEC title on Saturday with their win over Kentucky and Alabama’s loss to Tennessee. They travel on the road to face No. 22 Texas A&M who has lost four straight games. Auburn is locked into the No. 1 Overall seed in the NCAA tournament. In fact, Joe Lunardi said they could forfeit their remaining games until March Madness and still be a 1 Seed. That’s how good their resumé has been this year.
Their final two opponents both have much more on the line than they do. The Aggies were looking at a No. 2 seed a few weeks ago and Alabama was considered a lock for a 1 seed before the loss to the Vols. Auburn is a veteran team with only two non-seniors getting valuable minutes. Their starting five has an average age of 23.2 years old. In comparison, the Oklahoma City Thunder have an average age of 24.4. It will be interesting to see if Bruce Pearl rests anyone before the SEC Tournament.
- Can Alabama avoid 0-2?
Weeks ago the discussion in this very recurring article was how Alabama’s odds to finish as a two or three seed should be much higher than their odds to finish on the one line. That’s not because of their talent but rather the gauntlet they had in front of them to close the season. Five of their final six regular season games would be against ranked opponents, including their final three against top five teams. This week they host No. 5 Florida and travel to No. 1 Auburn. The Tide are coming off a heartbreaking loss on a last second buzzer beater to No. 4 Tennessee.
Alabama limped into the postseason a year ago finishing just 5-5 in their final ten games and still made a Final Four run. However, a win in either game this week would be huge for their seeding, and more importantly, their confidence heading into the postseason.
- Who’s on upset alert?
We try to stay hot with our upset picks after hitting another one this past Saturday. We’re 5-2 over our last seven picks in the upset alert special. Who’s on upset alert this week?
There are three candidates: South Carolina, Tennessee, and Missouri. Tennessee is riding high after a win over Alabama and heads to Ole Miss. South Carolina is currently at the bottom of the league in the standings yet still a 1.5 point favorite over Georgia who is very hot right now.
However, the pick is Missouri. Oklahoma is at home and desperate for a win as they’re the first team out in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology. The Sooners record at home is just 11-5. However, Missouri is just 3-6 on the road and Oklahoma has four wins this season against ranked opponents. To put that in perspective, that’s double the amount of ranked wins that No. 2 Duke has all season.