By Ross Jackson
Earlier this offseason, I wrote that the agreement between the New Orleans Saints and Derek Carr could end up as the worst free agent signing in the team’s history.
The four-year, $150 million deal was set to potentially come to an end via a post-June 1 cut or trade that would have settled the Saints with over $80 million in dead cap space. While the amount would have been deferred over two years, the admission of fault would have loomed large.
Imagine assuming that kind of dead cap hit for the sake of severing a relationship the team pursued. Not ideal.
But two main factors have changed the outlook of the contract in my eyes:
- Much like before, rolling the dice on a quarterback you believe in isn’t the worst way to spend money, even if overpaying for the results.
- The Saints got a $30 million blowback from the retirement, changing the financial loss dramatically.
When compared to contracts like a six-year, $54 million for a safety with injury issues in Jairus Byrd only to get three interceptions over 33 games, the Carr deal now feels miniscule.
Over two years, Carr will earn $70 million, $60 million of which were paid out during his active seasons. A $30 million per year quarterback winning just barely over 50-percent of his games (14-13 in 27 starts) is about standard.
The end result wasn’t nearly as brutal as was initially anticipated thanks to the large sum of money New Orleans managed to get back from his deal. Meanwhile, his 2026 cap hit is hardly guaranteed.
When compared to the dead cap hits of quarterbacks cut elsewhere like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and others, this will effectively end up being small potatoes for New Orleans.
The Saints got lucky here. Maybe Carr is $30 million worth of average. Maybe there’s something else at play. But in any case, Carr may just keep himself off the top of the worst free agency signing of all-time list. He will still find a home on it, probably right below Byrd.
