Statistically Speaking: Saints at Packers

By Ross Jackson

NEW ORLEANS — A late-December trip to Lambeau Field against the 10-4 Green Bay Packers isn’t exactly the ideal draw for the short-handed New Orleans Saints and interin head coach Darren Rizzi. Spencer Rattler will get the start for an injured Derek Carr and the Saints will also be without running back Alvin Kamara.

Here’s a closer look at how the two teams stack up for their clash on Monday Night Football.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense:

Saints Offense – No. 17 | Packers Defense – No. 8

The Packers’ offense has allowed just 20.3 points per game this season. The Saints have not scored more than 20 points in six of their last eight games. New Orleans won’t score an upset in a shootout here. They’ll need the defense to keep this one close.

Packers Offense – No. 7 | Saints Defense – No. 13

This is where a little bit of strength-versus-strength will meet on Monday. The Packers have averaged 27.1 points per game on the season, but have upped that to 30.3 over the last three games. Meanwhile, the Saints have limited teams to just 22.3 points per game on defense, 17.3 over the last three contests. The Saints have been the No. 3 scoring defense since returning from their bye. In a cold weather game, the scores may end up being low. But if the Packers get rolling, they’ve been hard to limit this year.

Point Differential:

Saints – -3 (No. 17) | Packers – +92 (No. 5)

This stat is typically an overall indicator of team success. Points scored, minus points allowed gives a glimpse of complementary scoring offense and defense. Complementary has not necessarily been the name of the game for New Orleans this season. At least not on a consistent basis. That’s exactly the story this comparison tells. The Packers, on the other hand, are consistent and balanced. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 20 | Packers Defense – No. 15

A fairly even matchup here. The Saints offense is just behind the middle of the league’s pack in passing offense. That is to be expected without the team’s two top wide receivers in play for the second half of the season and health concerns along the offensive line as well. Rattler looked comfortable delivering passes in the second half of last week’s game against the Washington Commanders. He’ll have to replicate it against a slightly above average passing defense in Green Bay. 

Packers Offense – No. 11 | Saints Defense – No. 28

The Packers love big plays and the Saints surrender them at a high rate. New Orleans is No. 6 in the league in 20+ yard passing  plays surrendered and T-No. 3 in 40+. Meanwhile Green Bay has generated the NFL’s most 40+ yard passing plays and is tied for third-most in 20+. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 11 | Packers Defense – No. 9

New Orleans will need to get reliable production on the ground in this game. But they’ll have to do it without starting running back Alvin Kamara. That means second-year back Kendre Miller should see the bulk of the work, but expect Jamaal Williams’ familiarity with cold weather games and having competed many times on Lambeau Field to potentially factor in as well. 

Packers Offense – No. 4 | Saints Defense – No. 27

Packers running back Josh Jacobs has been one of the better running backs in the NFL this year. He currently ranks No. 3 in the league in rushing yards and has rushed for 12 touchdowns. The Saints’ defense will have its work cut out for it stopping him and the Packers run scheme. Expect yards after contact to play a large role in this one. The New Orleans defense will need to tackle securely and early in this game. 

Turnover Differential:

Saints – +1 (T-No.16) | Packers – +10 (T-No. 4)

New Orleans forced 14 turnovers over its first nine games of this season. However, only two over the last five. Meanwhile, the Packers have taken the ball away at one of the NFL’s highest rates. The key for the Saints here will be to force the Packers to the air and play risky. With their big play susceptibility, that may seem counterintuitive, but coaxing Packers quarterback Jordan Love into a mistake or two through the air may be their best hope to turn around their turnover luck. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated:

Saints Offense – No. 18 | Packers Defense – No. 28

Packers Offense – No. 10 | Saints Defense – No. 20

Neither team generates pressure at a very high level on a season-long scale. But both have ticked up recently. The Saints have seen a particular rise in production from edge rushers Cameron Jordan and Chase Young, both of which contributed a pair of sacks to the team’s eight-sack game against Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.