ESPN FPI releases 2025 odds for wins, making CFP, winning title

The updated numbers from ESPN FPI have been released. Included are the projected wins, odds to make the College Football Playoff, and odds to win the National Title. 

There’s taking things with a grain of salt, and then there’s taking ESPN FPI seriously. It’s been one of the more flawed systems and metrics involved in college football for the last several years. Never forget in 2019, the FPI Model had Alabama ranked ahead of LSU even two weeks after the Tigers beat the Tide in an actual game. 

Regardless, not only is it great for offseason fodder, but it’s also a consistently used metric for CFP committee in regard to strength of schedule and strength of record. With that being said, here are where SEC teams stand in the following categories. 

FPI Rankings 

1. Texas 
2. Georgia 
3. Alabama 
4. Texas A&M 
5. Tennessee 
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss 
8. Auburn 
9. South Carolina 
10. Oklahoma 
11. Florida 
12. Arkansas 
13. Missouri 
14. Kentucky 
15. Mississippi State 
16. Vanderbilt 

Teams Most Likely to Make the CFP 

1. Texas – 83.9%
2. Georgia – 78.6%
3. Alabama – 66.2%
4. Tennessee – 38.5% 
5. Texas A&M – 34.3%
6. Ole Miss – 30.7%
7. LSU – 30.3%
8. Auburn – 21.8%
9. South Carolina – 20.3%
10. Oklahoma – 18.4%
11. Florida – 14.5% 
12. Missouri – 9.2%
13. Arkansas – 8.2%
14. Kentucky – 3.3%
15. Vanderbilt – .9%
16. Mississippi State – .7%

Teams in Top 20 Most Likely to Win the CFP Championship 

1. Texas – 22.2%
2. Georgia – 17.5%
3. Alabama – 10.4%
4. Tennessee – 2.3%
5. Texas A&M – 2.1%
6. LSU – 1.8%
7. Ole Miss – 1.5%
8. Auburn – 1.1%
9. South Carolina – .8%
10. Oklahoma – .7%
11. Florida – .6%

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