JACKSON: Why Mike McCarthy is the new front-runner for the Saints

There’s a new front-runner in town for the New Orleans Saints’ open head coaching position. After parting ways with the Dallas Cowboys, coach Mike McCarthy has widely emerged as the Saints’ next top target, for some even ahead of Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

There have been strong indications that Glenn likes the New York Jets job, so having another favorite available isn’t the worst thing for New Orleans. The shift in focus has left some wondering, “Why?” What is it about McCarthy that makes him an option the Saints would strongly consider in their coaching search?

Let’s explore.

Overall record as a head coach:

McCarthy spent 13 seasons as the Green Bay Packers head coach. During that time he finished with a 125-77-2 record. After a season away from the NFL, McCarthy returned to take the helm of the Dallas Cowboys. Over the next five years he went 49-35 in Dallas, giving him a career regular season win-loss record of 174-112-2——a .608 win percentage.

That win percentage is good for top-40 all-time and ranks No. 10 among active coaches in the league.

As for the playoffs, McCarthy has a combined record of 11-11. A perfect .500. This is one of the reasons many fans are hesitant about the coach. His long list of disappointing playoff exits is a bit overwhelming. However, for a team like the Saints, which has not made the playoffs in the last four years, getting to the postseason at all is a goal.

Over his 18 total seasons, between Green Bay and Dallas, McCarthy led the Packers and Cowboys to 11 10+ win seasons.

Playoff appearances

McCarthy led the Packers to nine playoff appearances, while taking the Cowboys to three-straight from 2021-2023, all with 12-5 records.

The issue for McCarthy has been shattering the playoff ceiling. A Super Bowl winning head coach in 2010, he returned to a pair of conference championships in 2014 and 2016. However, he never made it back to the big game.

Last second field goals, overtime losses, and complete blowouts—McCarthy-led teams have felt every kind of disappointment in their playoff exits. McCarthy would be asked to replace that voodoo here in New Orleans. 

From the Saints perspective, in order to lose in the playoffs, you have to make the playoffs. Don’t expect beggars to be choosers on this one.

Division competition

The Saints still believe their division is winnable, even though they will be aiming higher than that. McCarthy won the NFC North six of his 13 years with the Packers and the NFC East two of his five years with the Cowboys. Though, one of his second-place NFC East finishes came with a 12.5 Cowboys team. 

Managing a rebuild

When McCarthy took over a 4-12 Packers team, he took them from middle-of-the-road on both sides of the ball to a perennial top-10 team, in a matter of years. It helped that he started with a quarterback like NFL legend Brett Favre and later transitioned to a young Aaron Rodgers. He also assembled the staff that improved the defense.

He inherited a fine situation in Dallas, but lost starting quarterback Dak Prescott early in 2020. He then led the team to three-consecutive 12-5 seasons.

It’s hard to argue that McCarthy has too much experience pioneering rebuilds, retools, whatever NFL franchises are calling them these days. He always had the starting quarterback in place and core pieces. However, the sustained success as some of those pieces churned through in Green Bay may be of note and appeal for New Orleans.

The biggest concern

With more exciting candidates on the Saints’ search list, like Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady, it’s no secret that a McCarthy hire would feel underwhelming to much of the team’s fanbase. One of the biggest reasons why, aside from the playoff challenges, is that McCarthy’s offense has never been able to crack.

In his 17 full seasons as a head coach—he was dismissed partway through his final year with the Packers—McCarthy put together 12 top-10 scoring offenses, nine of which were top-five. He fielded successful total offenses, with 11 finishing inside the top 10 offenses and five finished within the top five. He even led 12 top-10 passing offenses, with five finishing top-five, but he has never figured out the run game to the same success.

In today’s NFL, that is a must. McCarthy has just three top-10 rushing seasons as a head coach and no top-five finishes in that category.

The Saints just re-signed star running back Alvin Kamara, who had one of his best career seasons last year. The run game is vital to success in the NFL right now, as offenses look to the ground game to punish lighter defenses after years of forcing those units into nickel and dime looks and smaller linebackers prowling the second level. 

The ceiling will always be too low if a run game can’t get going, the Saints learned that in 2024. McCarthy has a reputation for coming up short in this area, which is a pivotal one. To his credit, most of his best rushing seasons took place in Dallas. He’ll need to prove that’s about his system and not about Dallas’ talent on the offensive line.