Numbers to Know: Ole Miss, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee

By Chris Marler and Jacob Hester

🚨Sweet 16 Numbers to Know 🚨

Auburn vs Michigan | Fri. 9:39 PM ET

Quick deep dive on some numbers to know before tonight’s’ game between @AuburnMBB and @umichbball #WDE #WarEagle #GoBlue #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/swde5WeSr9

— Chris Marler (@VernDumbquist) March 28, 2025

OLE MISS-MICHIGAN STATE

OLE MISS

• 3-Point Shooting
  • Ole Miss has been exceptional from beyond the arc in the NCAA Tournament, shooting 49% over their first two games
  • Ole Miss’ Sean Pedulla has hit at least two 3s in 17 of his last 22 games
  • In NCAA Tournament games with three or more days rest, Chris Beard is 8-1 ATS compared to just 4-5 in games less than 48 hours later.
• Balanced Scoring: The Rebels have multiple players capable of contributing offensively, with five players scoring in double digits during their second-round victory over Iowa State. 
• Weaknesses:
  • Rebounding: Ole Miss struggles on the boards, ranking 339th nationally in rebounds per game, which could be a significant disadvantage against Michigan State’s strong rebounding (8th nationally).
  • Interior Defense: The Rebels allow opponents to shoot over 50% on two-point shots, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the paint, something Szymon Zapala, and others will try and exploit early. 

MICHIGAN STATE

• Perimeter Defense
  • The Spartans lead the nation in three-point defense, holding opponents to just 27.8% shooting from beyond the arc. 
• Rebounding
  • Michigan State is dominant on the boards, ranking 8th nationally in rebounds per game, which could exploit Ole Miss’s rebounding issues.
• Bench Depth
  • The Spartans boast a deep bench, averaging 34.5 points per game from non-starters, providing flexibility and sustained energy throughout the game. Watch out for Tre Holloman and Coen Carr.
• Weaknesses
  • Free Throw Dependence: Michigan State relies heavily on drawing fouls and scoring from the free-throw line, which could be mitigated if Ole Miss manages to defend without fouling. Michigan State makes teams pay when they get to the line as well. They rank 14th in the nation in Free Throw percentage at 78.9%.
  • Turnover Prone: The Spartans have experienced issues with turnovers in past games (10.9pg 151st nationally), which could be detrimental against an opportunistic Ole Miss defense.

AUBURN-MICHIGAN

• Both teams rank in the top four nationally in Quad 1 Wins. Michigan had the fourth most, finishing with a 12-7 record, while Auburn led the country with a 16-5 record in Quad 1 games. That was one shy of the all-time record set by Kansas. 
• Teams favored by eight points or more in this year’s tourney are 19-0 so far. Auburn is a 9-point favorite over Michigan. 
• Michigan has 13 wins by 4 or fewer points this season which is the most of any team in the last 40 years.
• Since 2020, Auburn has played 6 B1G Teams. They are 6-0 in those games with a 5-1 record ATS. 
• Heading into this weekend, Auburn holds nine wins over the current field of Sweet 16 teams. The most of any team in the country. 
• Michigan finished the regular season 5-7 vs tournament teams with those seven losses coming by an average of 12.4 ppg 
• Michigan ranks 337th in turnovers per game with 13.9. They also rank 294th in D1 for opponent 3Pt attempts allowed per game at 24.6. Last night, we saw what a good three-point shooting team against a horrible three-point defending team looks like in the Bama-BYU game. Auburn is 18-of-54 from deep through two games in the tourney including making 11 from 3 in Rd 1 

KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE

KENTUCKY

• Perimeter Shooting
  • Kentucky has shown great 3 point accuracy against Tennessee, shooting 50% (12-of-24) from beyond the arc in both regular-season victories over the Vols. 
• Offensive Depth
  • With five active players averaging double figures, the Wildcats boast a balanced scoring attack that can adapt to various defensive strategies. 
• Defensive Consistency
  • While overpowering offensively, Kentucky has faced challenges in maintaining defensive intensity throughout games, which could be exploited by a gritty Vols squad.
• Pressure
  • Facing a team for the third time, especially one seeking redemption, can add mental pressure that may impact Kentucky’s overall performance. You can’t half-step against this Tennessee squad.

TENNESSEE

• Stingy Defense
  • Tennessee ranks among the nation’s best, allowing just 62.9 points per game (6th nationally) and holding opponents to 38.2% shooting (1st nationally). 
• Motivation for Redemption
  • After two losses to Kentucky this season, the Vols are will certainly adjust their strategy on both sides of the court to try and continue dancing. 
• Perimeter Defense
  • Tennessee has struggled to contain Kentucky’s three-point shooters in previous matchups, which could be a critical factor if not addressed. It’s been the difference in both regular season matchups. 
• Offensive Dependence on Key Players
  • While Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler have been standout performers, over-reliance on them could be problematic if Kentucky’s defense focuses on limiting their impact. Tennessee might need Jordan Gainey to repeat his UCLA performance (13 points) from the Round of 32.
• Tennessee Tidbit
  • Since 2009, Rick Barnes is 6-18 ATS in the NCAA tournament. His teams are also 4-11 ATS in two days’ rest.

BONUS POINTS

• SEC teams are 28-13 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents. 

PLAYER PROPS & TRENDS

Auburn

Miles Kelly

• Over 12 pts in 6 of last 8 games 
• 3+ 3PT FGs in 3 of last 5

Tahaad Pettiford 

• 2+ 3Pt FGs in 4 of last 6
• 16+ points in 5 of last 7
• 4+ rebounds in 5 straight games and 6 of last 8
• 3+ assists in 7 of last 10 and both tourney games 

Chad Baker-Mazara

• Under 12 points in 4 of last 5
• Under 2 3Pt FGs in 5 of last 7
• Under 3 rebounds in 4 of last 5
• 3 or more assists in 5 of last 6

Kentucky 

Koby Brea 

• 10+ pts in 10 of last 14
• At least 2 3PT FGs in 9 of last 10
• Vs TN in 2 games this year – 29 points & 6-of-9 from 3

Tennessee

 Zakai Zeigler 

• 15 pts or more in 4 of last 5
• 6+ assists in 6 of last 7
• 8-of-18 from 3 in last 3 games with at least 2 in each game 

Chaz Lanier 

• 20+ pts in 4 of last 6 and 8 of last 13
• Held to 15 pts or less in both games vs UK 
• 10-of-18 from 3 in the tourney
• 3-of -17 vs UK during the season 

Ole Miss 

Sean Pedulla 

• Pedulla has 20 pts in each of the first 2 rounds 
• Pedulla has at least 2 3PT FGs in 14 of his last 19 

Malik Dia  

• Dia has at least one 3Pt made in 11 of his last 12 games 
• Dia has 10+ in 8 of his last 11 games 
• Dia has 5+ Rebounds in 8 of his last 10 games 
• Dia averaged 12.5 ppg and 6.7 rbg against ranked opponents since January

Check out more of our SEC coverage.