Statistically Speaking: Offense needs thunder, pitching depth is coming

By Hunt Palmer

Half of the SEC slate is in the books. The Tigers find themselves 10-5 and in a tie for fourth in the SEC standings.

Remaining are two series with Arkansas and Tennessee who rank second and third in the league currently, three games with Alabama who is tied for eighth, a trip to College Station to play a surging Texas A&M team and then a season finale with South Carolina who is only better than winless Missouri among league teams.

As SEC schedules go, it’s fairly balanced on the way home.

Let’s dive into some numbers to determine where LSU needs marked improvement and where LSU has passed the conference test.

POP, PLEASE

One glaring question mark about this roster preseason was its ability to hit home runs. For the season, LSU is tied for ninth, very much in the middle of the pack, with 55 homers. The Tigers are just four shy of Texas A&M (59) who is in seventh and have nearly double what Vanderbilt has hit (32) at the bottom of the league.

But looking further into it, the warmer weather needs to produce more big flies for this team. LSU has hit just 17 home runs in 15 league games. That’s significantly off the pace that the 2023 and 2024 teams produced.

The 2023 team hit 61 home runs in league play. The 2024 team, far from the juggernaut 2023 squad in terms of wins and losses, still clubbed 47 league home runs. LSU is on pace for 34.

Where do they find the power?

Well, just one of Jared Jones’s 12 homers has come in league play. Daniel Dickinson (8 HR) and Ethan Frey (6 HR) have shown pop. They’ve combined for just three league homers.

This LSU offense is not built on power, but those 17 first half homers need to turn into 25 to 28 second half homers as the weather warms.

LSU is 25-2 when they homer and 7-4 when they don’t.

BUT, THEY’RE BALANCED

While the home runs haven’t come, LSU is doing some other things very well.

The team batting average is a strength. I know, batting average is an antiquated statistic, but let me explain.

LSU is second to Arkansas in the SEC in batting average. Looking deeper, the Tigers ae third in the SEC in on base percentage, fifth in slugging and tied first in doubles. If you’re not going to jump the yard, you need to be deep and productive in other ways. LSU has done that and ranks fourth in the SEC in runs.

A look at SEC batting averages reveals a little bit more.

Only four “everyday” players on the 2023 team hit better than .260 in league play—Dylan Crews (.405), Tommy White (.361), Brayden Jobert (.303 in 21 games) and Tre’ Morgan (.281).

This LSU club has five players above that threshold, and two that are beneath it are Jones and Steven Milam who are essentially proven commodities. I believe Jones will post stronger second half numbers than .254, 1 HR. I believe Milam will hit for a higher average than .231 moving forward.

That makes LSU deep.

The 2023 team hit .280. This LSU team is hitting .277.

Also, shout out to Michael Braswell. Last season he hit .310 in league play. He’s at .308 in a smaller sample size this year meaning his last year and a half in SEC play has resulted in a .310 batting average.

SET OF STOPPERS

I went through these numbers last week, but they bear repeating as they get better. This is all against SEC hitting:

Zac Cowan: 19.1IP, 10H, 2R, 1ER, 4BB, 23K, 0 extra base hits, opp ba .145, 0.47 ERA

Casan Evans: 14.2IP, 12H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 20K, 1 extra base hit, opp ba .218, 0.61 ERA

Total: 34IP, 22H, 3R, 2ER, 9BB, 43K, 1 extra base hit, 0.53ERA

LSU is 23-0 when leading after seven innings.

What a weapon.

DON’T TRADE THIS MAVRICK

Mavrick Rizy is starting to settle in. Tuesday night he blew McNeese away, but he’s really looked good for an extended period now. Over his last eight appearances, Rizy has worked 12 innings and allowed just three earned runs.

He has not walked multiple hitters in any appearance though he did walk a man and hit a man against Mississippi State. He has not allowed multiple earned runs in an outing since the February 28 stint against Kansas State.

The linescore over the last eight outings:

12IP, 9H (five at Auburn), 3R, 3ER, 13K, 3BB, 1 extra base hit

He has thrown 70 percent strikes in his last two outings and has only given up pone extra base hit all season.

You know what you have in Cowan and Evans. Benge has been reliable of late. Rizy is really coming on. William Schmidt has been encouraging in consecutive midweek outings.

That pitching depth is starting to come.