Statistically Speaking: Saints at Giants Breakdown

By Ross Jackson

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. —  In pursuit of their fifth win of the season, the New Orleans Saints have a solid shot in their upcoming contest against the New York Giants. For the most part, the teams are either evenly matched or the Saints widely outpace their opponent. The run game will be a key factor in this game, if New Orleans can control that element, things should shape up well for them.

Here is a statistical breakdown of both teams using some of the game’s most important metrics.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense:

Saints Offense – No. 14 | Giants Defense – No. 18

Here is an area where the teams will be evenly matched. While the Saints can produce in terms of yardage between the twenties, inside the red zone and at times even just beyond midfield have been a challenge. That puts a strain on a team’s scoring potential if dives are stalling in scoring position.

New Orleans will benefit from a couple of different angles here if they can reclaim their scoring prowess even just for the weekend. By scoring they obviously put themselves in the best position to win, but it also keeps their biggest struggle at bay: run defense. If the Saints offense can score consistently, it will be their best run defense with the Giants forced to stay in the air and turn one-dimensional. 

Giants Offense – No. 32 | Saints Defense – No. 19

At just 15.2 points per game, New York is dead-last in the NFL in scoring. The Saints’ defense has been far from perfect, but they have allowed just two teams to score more than 26 points. The key number to watch however will be 20. New Orleans is 0-7 against teams that score more than 19 points, 4-1 against the teams they hold to 19 or fewer. With New York’s abysmal per game average, things are looking good for New Orleans. 

Point Differential:

Saints – minus-5 (T-No. 17) | Giants – minus-96 (No. 28)

Outside of their tough Week 5-8 stretch, each of the Saints’ losses have been by a touchdown or less. New Orleans is 1-4 in one-score games while New York is 1-6 in those situations. One of these teams may have to buck the trend in a tight game, but the Saints have a league-leading 21.5 average margin of victory. The trends say if the Saints win, it could be a blow out. However if it stays close, the game becomes a toss up.

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 19 | Giants Defense – No. 6

The Giants’ passing defense is surprisingly high ranked. It’s tough to gauge whether it’s been a real strength for the 2-10 club or if the lack of passing production against them is simply a byproduct of porous run defense. The Giants have faced the second-fewest passing attempts as a defense. So perhaps the Saints could take advantage of a hurt and not oft-targeted defensive secondary as well.

Giants Offense – No. 32 | Saints Defense – No. 29

New Orleans has surrendered among the most 20+ yard passing plays this season while being tied for the league’s most 40+ yard passing plays as well. Explosive plays have been the team’s kryptonite in the passing game. However, they have surrendered among the NFL’s least passing touchdowns. If New Orleans can keep Giants quarterback Drew Lock, who may be without his top passing weapon in wide receiver Malik Nabers, the explosive plays can be written off as a “bend-don’t-break” kind of approach.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 10 | Giants Defense – No. 29

This is where New Orleans must control the game. Running backs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, who was activated from Injured Reserve on Saturday afternoon, are going to be the team’s keys to victory in East Rutherford. In particular, the Giants have struggled against runs to the inside. That is where Miller will be asked to carry the load without do-it-all tight end Taysom Hill. New Orleans runs outside of their tackles more than 70% of the time, the most in the NFL. But they may need to find success, even at a lesser volume, on the inside to control this contest.

Giants Offense – No. 15 | Saints Defense – No. 26

Rookie running back Tyronne Tracy may be the Giants’ most important player on offense Sunday. With Nabers battling a hip flexor injury, Tracy has been their only other consistent weapon. The former Purdue Boilermaker is a versatile treat that can run inside and out and has a wealth of experience as a receiver as well. He and fellow rusher Devin Singletary will have on their shoulders a workload much like what is expected for Kamara ånd Miller.

Turnover Differential:

Saints – +2 (T-No. 11) | Giants – -8 (T-No. 28)

Another clear advantage for New Orleans. The Saints have not forced a turnover against their last two opponents. That is very out of the ordinary for a team that started out hot in the takeaways column. The secondary in particular should receive some opportunities Sunday to get back on track.

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated:

Saints Offense – No. 17 | Giants Defense – No. 20

Giants Offense – No. 20 | Saints Defense – No. 29

Neither team rushes the passer particularly well, especially now that the Giants are without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and are dealing with additional injuries on the line with fellow lineman D.J. Davidson also heading to Injured Reserve. However, the Saints are the better team when it comes to protecting their quarterback. Especially considering that the New Orleans offensive line will have available all five of its starters for the first time since Week 3. 

The same cannot be said for the Giants who are already without starting tackle Andrew Thomas and managing injuries to blockers Jermaine Eluemenour (Doubtful) and Evan Neal (Questionable). Former NFC East defensive lineman Chase Young, who ranks No. 5 in the NFL in quarterback pressures, should be able to take advantage of this opportunity.