We continue our countdown to kickoff with another new offseason series: predicting the record for each team in the SEC with a game by game look at their schedule.
Up next, the Auburn Tigers .
Strength of Schedule: 15th in the SEC
Auburn opens the year against Baylor and DJ Lagway who was intercepted while I wrote this sentence. They only play one true road game in the first six weeks of the season. There is a brutal stretch in October against Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss.
November, however, is the easiest of any team in the conference with games against Mississippi State, Arkansas and Samford before their annual Iron Bowl matchup against Alabama.
It’s the 15th hardest schedule in the SEC as we illustrated in our previous article on the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest game of the year: Florida
There will be bigger rivalry games on the schedule for sure this season. It’s a slate that includes the annual slugfests against Georgia and Alabama and multiple other ranked opponents coming to town. But, few games will be as important for the optics of the program and hire as the one against Florida in week three.
Florida and Auburn were both in the same market for the same names during the hiring process a season ago. Jon Sumrall was the early favorite to land the Auburn job when Hugh Freeze was beginning the process of packing his bags.
Both teams will most likely come into this game at 2-0, and will meet in primetime under the lights at Jordan-Hare Stadium. A win from Auburn gets them to 3-0 and would have them halfway to their best win total (6) in any of the past six seasons. More importantly, it will make Auburn fans feel like they won the game on the field as well as the hiring process.
After hiring Bryan Harsin and Hugh Freeze, that’s a much needed win for them.
Best chance at upset: at Ole Miss
I’ve said all offseason that I love Pete Golding and I think the trajectory of his program is soaring. Ole Miss should be a contender in this league for the next several years with their commitment to NIL funding and recruiting resources. The majority of coaches that come into this league struggle in year one. It happened with Saban, it happened with Kirby and it could happen to Alex Golesh.
It could also happen to Pete Golding. If it does, the Auburn game is the best bet. Ole Miss has a four game stretch with Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma. Sandwiched between Texas and Ole Miss is a home game against Auburn. Upsets happen when there’s a lack of focus and one team overlooks the other. This game checks those boxes, and Auburn being in a nothing to lose mentality is a position they tend to thrive in historically.
Trap Game: Vanderbilt
I almost copped out and put two games here, since Mississippi State and Vanderbilt feel like basically parallel situations. The answer is Vanderbilt, though.
The ‘Dores come to town in between games against Florida and Tennessee. Historically, Vanderbilt has been the better team in this series and leads the all-time record 23-22-1. That includes two wins in the last two seasons under Clark Lea.
There are a lot of question marks on this year’s Vanderbilt team, but counting out Vanderbilt just because they lost Diego Pavia seems like a big mistake, especially considering Auburn is breaking in a ton of new pieces.
Toughest Stretch: October
Auburn is no stranger to having an absolute gauntlet of a schedule each and every year. Even with the brutal stretch they’ll face in October, it’s still the easiest schedule they’ve had in years. The spooky season slate is a nightmare, though.
Auburn has four games in October with three coming away from home. Road games at Tennessee, Georgia and Ole Miss are bad enough, but the lone home game coming against Lane Kiffin and LSU isn’t exactly a fun welcome home to Jordan-Hare.
There’s a legitimate chance they lose all four of these games. That being said, if first year head coach Alex Golesh is able to go 2-2 in that stretch, they may build a statue for him before the season’s over.
Ceiling and Floor: 9-3 and 5-7
Auburn hasn’t had a winning record in five straight seasons. That’s going to come to an end this year. The roster is a bit of a mystery considering how much former blue chip talent left in the portal. But, there are a lot of things to like about the way this team is constructed, especially from a staff standpoint. The combination of DJ Durkin coaching the defense and Alex Golesh overseeing the offense is a winning one.
The guaranteed losses on the schedule are to Georgia and LSU. I’d probably include Alabama on that list, considering they get them in Tuscaloosa.
That’s the path to 9-3. It feels like the path to the floor would have to be a nightmare scenario like a rash of injuries or horribly unlucky losses. If you ask Auburn fans, that probably isn’t that farfetched given their recent few years.
Still, there are guaranteed wins on the schedule against Samford, Arkansas and Southern Miss. They’ll also be favored against Baylor, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. The floor for this year’s team has been the ceiling for three of the last four years, and that’s a good feeling for folks on the plains.
Season Prediction: 8-4
Baylor – W 31-23
Southern Miss – W 38-17
Florida – W 31-30
Vanderbilt – W 27-17
At Tennessee – L 23-20
At Georgia – L 30-20
LSU – L 34-23
At Ole Miss – W 24-23
Arkansas – W 38-20
At Mississippi State – W 34-28
Samford – W 52-3
At Alabama – L 30-24
