Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel isn’t on the hot seat, but it isn’t exactly cool either. The 8-4 regular season a year ago wasn’t necessarily unexpected with what they lost. It also didn’t make Vols fans feel super confident about their head coach, especially after the CFP berth resulted in an embarrassing defeat at Ohio State.
This year’s schedule is far from easy, but the Vols are in prime position to surprise some folks that are overlooking this team because of the quarterback situation. Here’s a look at their 2026 schedule.
Strength of Schedule: 10th in the SEC
Tennessee has a lot of big names and marquee programs on their schedule, but they get most of them at home. They do travel to Atlanta for a fun one against Georgia Tech in week two, and they have a tough two week stretch in late November against Texas A&M and LSU. They also open the season with eight straight games and don’t get a bye until Halloween. But again, all their toughest games are at home including Texas, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn.
It’s the sixth hardest schedule in the SEC as we illustrated in our previous article on the toughest schedules in the SEC.
Biggest Game of the Year: Alabama
Tennessee could be a one loss team when they host Alabama in week seven. Alabama could be limping into that game on the heels of a massive game against Georgia. There’s a really good chance Alabama loses that game. There’s a decent chance it would be the second loss of the season for them depending on how that home game against South Carolina goes. It’s also a week before the Tide hosts Texas A&M. Tennessee has plenty of rivals, but there’s no one they hate more than Alabama. They hate Alabama like their fans hate being kind to strangers online.
At the very least the Vols have a chance to put Alabama’s playoff hopes on the thinnest of ice before they even get to Halloween. For Tennessee, it’s a chance to also get to the final game before the bye week with their biggest goals still in front of them.
Biggest Trap Game: Auburn
There’s a good chance that Auburn is 4-0 coming into this game, and Tennessee will almost certainly be coming off the heels of a loss to Texas. How quickly can they rebound? Good news Tennessee fans, Josh Heupel is 13-2 in regular season games following a loss. They should be able to bounce back at home against the Tigers, but still it could be a tough game considering they’ll be facing their old offensive coordinator.
Upset Alert: LSU
LSU comes to town in late November on the heels of massive back-to-back games at home against Texas and LSU. I think Texas will be their first loss of the season prior to their road trip to Tennessee. I also think the Vols could potentially be coming off a statement win at Texas A&M.
Everyone is talking about LSU’s trip to Ole Miss because of Lane Kiffin returning to Oxford, but don’t forget how toxic and hostile Neyland Stadium was a few years ago when the Rebels came to town. I would expect more of the same this year. It may be even more heightened considering the playoff implications on the line. Playing Alabama and Texas in consecutive weeks is brutal for anyone. Capping off a third week by traveling to a place that hated you before anyone in Oxford ever did could be a nightmare.
Ceiling and Floor: 10-2 and 6-6
This Tennessee team can go a long way if the defense gels and picks up on new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ defense. The biggest criticism that most have for them this season is the uncertainty at quarterback with starting a freshman at the position. That’s fair considering most freshman quarterbacks don’t do well in this league regardless of how highly ranked they were out of high school.
First year QBs under Josh Heupel tend to have huge seasons though. Dating back to his days as the offensive coordinator at Missouri with Drew Lock, his first year starters at QB have averaged over 262 pass yards per game, 8.7 yards per attempt, and a staggering 31 touchdowns to 7 interceptions ratio.
The Vols will have one of the best offensive lines in the country. They’ll have a quarterback’s best friend with DeSean Bishop at running back as well, not to mention two returning 800 yard receivers. The ceiling for Tennessee compared to their currently projected win total is as high as anyone in the country. There’s a legit chance they can go 10-2, and you can also talk me into 6-6 or 7-5 depending on the quarterback situation not working out.
Schedule Prediction: 9-3
Josh Heupel teams have been night and day at home and on the road during his time in Knoxville. The Vols are 27-6 at home including a 23-4 mark in the last four years. They’re just 16-13 away from home. I think that matters when predicting the schedule, but I also think they get a statement win on the road in College Station this year.
Furman – W
At Georgia Tech – W
Kennesaw State – W
Texas – L
Auburn – W
At Arkansas – W
Alabama – L
At South Carolina – L
Kentucky – W
At Texas A&M – W
LSU – W
At Vanderbilt – W
