Polls get it wrong. Pundits get it wrong. That’s why we aren’t going to give our prediction of who the top 25 teams actually are here. This is our prediction of just how wrong (or right) the pollsters get the initial preseason AP Top 25 when it is released on Monday.
Reminder that this is about as flawed an exercise as we have in sports. The outrage over perceived SEC bias has been talked about endlessly this offseason. A great deal of that is because of the number of SEC teams that find themselves ranked in the early part of the season in these polls only to find themselves unranked at the end of the year. Last year 12 of the preseason top 25 teams finished the year outside of the top 25. That included four teams from the SEC.
Here’s what you need to know about this year’s top 25 and the rules of making the first poll of the year. It’s not an exact science to be accurate in the rankings. It is an exact science to see how predictable they can be. Any preseason top 25 should follow three simple rules.
1. Load up the rankings with SEC and Big Ten teams
2. Squeeze Notre Dame in the top 10 and a Group of 6 schol like Boise State or Memphis between Nos. 21 and 25.
3. No defending national champion should be outside the top five.
With that being said, here’s my prediction for Monday’s first AP Top 25 poll of the season.
1. Ohio State
2. Notre Dame
3. Oregon
4. Georgia
5. Indiana
6. Texas
7. Miami
8. Texas A&M
9. Texas Tech
10. LSU
11. Ole Miss
12. Oklahoma
13. Southern Cal
14. Alabama
15. BYU
16. Michigan
17. Penn State
18. Clemson
19. SMU
20. Iowa
21. Tennessee
22. Washington
23. Utah
24. Oklahoma
25. Boise State
