National championship this. College football playoff contender that. Everyone knows there’s a ninth game added, and the idea that five teams will once again make the 12 team playoff are pretty far-fetched.
So what are the real designations and tiers for every team for the 2026 season? I’m glad you asked.
Tier 1: Win a natty or the fanbase will actually demand the coach be fired
Texas.
If Texas doesn’t at least get to the national championship, Steve Sarkisian may get the True Detective Season 1 version of Matthew McConaughey instead of the happy go lucky, Sing 2 and Dazed and Confused one. You cannot be given $47 million (for a roster) and still fail. This isn’t a political election. It’s time to win now. Not in 2028.
Tier 2: Can compete for a national title
Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma.
Bold prediction: all three will make the college football playoff. And, the good news for conference first fans that love to cheer on the league (for whatever reason) – this year there are multiple teams from the SEC that can not only make the CFP, but actually win the national championship.
Tier 3: Can compete for a CFP spot, but won’t and their fanbases haven’t accepted it yet
Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M.
These three are routinely mentioned as playoff contenders, and all three are ranked in most preseason polls near the top 12. But, all three also lost coaches, coordinators, and/or key pieces off of last year’s team that led them to the playoff. For two of these programs it was the pinnacle of postseason success since color television was invented. For Alabama, it was the most embarrassing postseason ending since that 2018 debacle against Clemson out in Santa Clara. Is there reason to believe that each could compete for a spot in the playoff and possibly a national championship? Sure. Will it happen? Absolutely not. Just look at their schedules.
Tier 4: CFP Darkhorses
South Carolina and Tennessee.
Laugh all you want, but the pieces are in place for either, or both, of these teams to make a run. Each team is loaded to the gills with weapons. Each team has enough on either side of the ball to be good enough to go on a run to win at least nine games. The question is will their least concerning pieces and position units be enough to outweigh the valid concerns that each team faces.
Tier 5: Direct stop to 7-5
Auburn.
This is a positive. Could you look at the schedule and convince yourself that they could win nine games? Sure. But, you and I both know that after five straight years of losing seasons you’ll take the seven wins and be happy with it.
Tier 6: Get ready to learn Independence Bowl buddy
Missouri and Florida.
The fanbases for each school probably scoffed when you saw a direct stop to 7-5. Y’all wish you were headed to Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Or Houston for the Texas Bowl with all that free Kinder’s barbeque and steak seasoning for that matter. Nope.
These are two great programs with head coaches everyone should believe in based on their track record. But, not this year. Whether it be because of Ahmad Hardy’s injury or Jon Sumrall still being a year away from bringing in his first elite recruiting class, there are too many obstacles in the way for these two teams.
Tier 7: Home for the holidays, but ruined someone’s playoff hopes along the way
Mississippi State and Kentucky.
These two teams will be fan favorites for a lot of casual fans all year long. The starting quarterbacks for both teams are as likable as anyone in the country, and they are both very talented. Kamario Taylor’s supporting cast may not be good enough to get him to a bowl game, but he himself is more than talented enough to ruin someone’s Saturday, and possibly season.
Tier 8: Welcome back to the suck.
Arkansas and Vanderbilt.
These two teams remind me of divorced dads hitting rock bottom. Vanderbilt married rich, and it was lovely for a couple years. They got to fly first class, tasted lobster and caviar for the first time, and even got to try out a bidet. And, probably loved it. Then that all came crashing down when they were served divorce papers in the form of Diego Pavia and his other cast of 24 year old mercenaries finally ran out of eligibility. Now it’s the opposite of that Steve Winwood classic and back to the low life again.
At least there’s a familiar face there to welcome Vandy back. Arkansas has been here for years just crushing a diet of Monster energy drinks and 2-for-1 Filet of Fishes in a duplex next door. Good to have a neighbor back.
