It’s always good news when one of college football’s best players chooses to stay at a university. That is especially the case with Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy.
Hardy was the best running back in America a season ago and could have taken his talents anywhere and chose to stay at Missouri. Now, in 2026, Hardy will miss the start of the season after suffering a gunshot wound to his leg earlier this offseason.
So, what does that mean for Missouri and its ceiling in 2026? The good and bad news for Tiger fans is that the answer is, not much.
No one has found a bell cow at running back more over the last five years than Missouri has. The SEC’s leading rusher in three of the last five seasons has played for the Tigers. That may change this year, but the emphasis on the run game as the primary catalyst for the offense certainly won’t.
The good news for Missouri is that they have a more than capable backup in Jamal Roberts who can make sure the rushing production doesn’t fall off a cliff. He enters his junior season after a year where he was third in the conference in yards per carry last year at 6.07.
Roberts had nearly half of Hardy’s carries last season (124) but still managed to put up 753 yards and six touchdowns. The offense should be fine without Hardy early in the season as he works his way back to full strength, and the Tigers should be favored in at least their first three games.
The bad news for Missouri is that Hardy’s absence doesn’t change the team’s ceiling. Sportsbooks have set Missouri’s win total at 6.5 games.
There hasn’t been a ton of outrage on that projection being too high or too low from most people this offseason. Hardy’s absence would definitely impact that number if he’s out for an extended period of time.
After all, this is a team that’s still 7-19 against top 25 teams and 17-24 against teams with a winning record. The ceiling of seven wins for Missouri is because of a lot of factors not named Ahmad Hardy.
