Lane Kiffin is a numbers guy.
He pours over data and analytics religiously trying to find any possible edge. It’s served him well. He won 50 games over his last five years at Ole Miss. Quick math puts that at 10 per season. The Rebels only won 10 games three times between 1963 and Kiffin’s 2020 arrival. He did it four times.
He’s also unafraid of risk.
Famously, Kiffin pushes the envelope on fourth downs, often electing to go for it as opposed to playing the field position game or grabbing three points.
His decision to recruit these players whose eligibility is being determined in a court room dwarfs those fourth down calls. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey made sure of that last week when he laid out draconian penalties for schools who roster these ex-NFL athletes.
A six-game suspension for a coach is one thing. The fine of half the program’s annual budget could be crippling. I don’t have a perfect idea of what LSU is spending monthly on football, but it’s reasonable to suggest it’s the most in the country.
Brian Kelly is owed in the neighborhood of $800,000 a month to stay away. Kiffin’s deal is worth more than $90 million. Both Blake Baker and Charlie Weis Jr. make over $2 million annually. This roster could ultimately top $50 million.
It’s hard to imagine a program stroking more checks. Writing another for eight figures sounds untenable.
I won’t pretend to know what the ultimate outcome of these eligibility cases will be. Attorneys are split. Tony Clayton speaks with remarkable conviction on the players’ behalf. Tom Mars, who has 40 years of experience in the field, sides with the conferences.
At the very least, there is a threat of the players losing. That would put LSU and any school that rosters these players at a serious risk of incurring massive penalties.
For what reward?
It appears that would be Jack Pyburn on the edge, Dae’quan Wright at tight end, Zxavian Harris at defensive tackle and Blake Cotton at cornerback. It’s conceivable that none of the four earns a starting role.
Depth is crucial over a 12-game season, and all four were good enough to earn a look at the highest level. Wright has a gift for blocking field goals. Pyburn is a physical presence against the run. Wright adds a blocking option to compliment Trey’Dez Green. Cotton has more experience than Michael Turner or Havon Finney.
I get it, but it’s not worth it.
Dominick McKinley, Lamar Brown, Malachi Thomas and Finney can man the roles these players are being brought in to fill. And they don’t carry a fine of $25-ish million to put on the field.
Again, Kiffin embraces risk and will explore any avenue to gain an advantage or win a game. He’s not going to back down here, either. My expectation is that all four will be on the field following Thursday’s ruling and the NCAA’s mandatory seven-day ramp up.
I expect that the SEC will appeal, and whether or not a stay is issued will determine the players’ availability.
This will be Kiffin’s biggest dice roll to date. It better not come up snake eyes.
