It was a bad week for the picks a week ago. A 7-4 record in Week 3? Woof. Thanks a lot Texas A&M and NC State.
Still, the season the record is 38-5, and we’ve got an absolutely massive weekend in the SEC once again. Here are our Week 4 picks with several upsets included.
The appetizers
South Alabama at Kentucky | Kentucky -20.5 | O/U 54.5
Kentucky 38, South Alabama 17
Oklahoma at Georgia | Georgia -14 | O/U 44.5
Georgia 27, Oklahoma 13
Vanderbilt at Auburn | Auburn -9.5 | O/U 55.5
Auburn 30, Vanderbilt 23
South Carolina at Alabama | Alabama -12.5 | O/U 53.5
Alabama 28, South Carolina 24
Tulsa at Arkansas | Arkansas -7 | O/U 50.5
Tulsa 27, Arkansas 24
The main courses
Texas A&M at LSU | LSU -8.5 | O/U 51.5
The point spread may seem high, but it’s not. Texas A&M is a bad football team.
Many of the concerns surrounding LSU and quarterback Sam Leavitt after last week could be nullified against an Aggie defense that has struggled to pressure quarterbacks and force mistakes. They are last in the SEC in sacks (4) and have just five interceptions in their last 16 games dating back to the start of last season.
Lane Kiffin is 6-0 in his last six games coming off a loss. Three of those games were against ranked teams and five were against SEC teams. He won those six games by an average of 16 points per game and only two were within single digits.
LSU 34, Texas A&M 20
Missouri at Mississippi State | Mississippi State -6.5 | O/U 58.5
Earlier this week I heard a national pundit say, “These are the types of games Eli Drinkwitz wins.”
When?
Eli Drinkwitz is 26-24 against SEC opponents. He is 11-17 in road games. He is 7-19 against ranked teams and he is 17-24 against teams with winning records.
This will be a good game early, and Austin Simmons will keep things close against a Mississippi State secondary that can be susceptible to big plays at times. Last week, I scoffed at the idea that the Bulldogs could score 37 points on a much better defense than they’re facing this week. What an idiot.
Mississippi State 38, Missouri 27
Ole Miss at Florida | Florida -3 | O/U 58.5
There is zero part of me that wants to pick Florida here. Ole Miss was awesome last week, and there’s a dark and admittedly dumb part of me that thinks playing on the road might actually help the Rebels stay more focused after such a big win than they would be at home.
But, Las Vegas clearly knows something. For most of the week, I tried to pull my best Helen Keller and not see or hear any of it.
Here’s the thing, Ole Miss is really good, and I think they still have a chance to make the College Football Playoff. However, when Vegas speaks you tend to listen, and Vegas is screaming right now.
Since 1978, only four teams ranked in the top five have been underdogs against a team ranked outside of the Top 20. All four of the lower ranked teams that were favored not only covered the spread, but they won outright.
In fact, that same scenario has happened only twice since 1995 and the two lower ranked teams won by a combined 49 points in those games.
If that wasn’t bad enough, there’s also the fact that all the public money is pouring in on Ole Miss, and that’s never the side you want to be on. As of Thursday morning, over 75% of the public money and bets are on Ole Miss to win or cover the spread.
Florida 30, Ole Miss 28
Texas at Tennessee | Texas -4 | O/U 55.5
Who’s ready for a bold prediction? Ok good, because here comes a bold prediction.
I wish Steve Spurrier would’ve waited a little longer to call his shot, so I could’ve done it first. This isn’t a good matchup for Texas. Let’s just be as brash and bold as possible here.
Texas is ranked No. 1 in the country because they’ve played one good, meaningful quarter of football this season. Before their fourth quarter comeback against Ohio State, they ran 38 plays for 100 yards.
They spent $50 million building a roster this offseason that looked like the Avengers on paper. Through three games, though, that offense has produced just nine plays of 20-plus yards, while the defense has managed only five sacks. Now, that defense has to face what may be the best offensive line in the country.
At least they get to play this game at home where Arch Manning thrives. Oh wait, that’s not happening either.
Arch Manning and Texas were terrible in true road games last year. They went 2-3 and the two wins were one score games against Kentucky and Mississippi State. In those games Manning completed just 57.5% of his passes and threw an interception in four of the five.
Then, there’s Tennessee who gets off to fast starts better than any other program in the country. The Volunteers have scored first in 53 of their 68 games under head coach Josh Heupel. That means they’ve scored first in 78% of their games under him.
They’re going to get the ball first, score on script and not only will Tennessee win this game, but they will never trail the entire 60 minutes.
It won’t be the first field storm in Neyland history, but it will be the first in broad daylight.
Tennessee 27, Texas 23
