The New Orleans Saints have started their three-game homestand with two consecutive losses and need a win off of a short week in order to avoid going winless over the run of home matchups. In order to escape with one win over a trio of hosting opportunities, the 1-3 Saints will have to get a win over a surging 4-0 Minnesota Vikings team.
A strong and aggressive defense is on its way to the Big Easy with an eye on keeping the Saints winless in the Caesars Superdome to start the season, a situation the Saints must avoid.
Here is a look at how both teams match up across a number of key statistical categories.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)
Saints Offense – T-No.10 (26.3) | Vikings Defense – No. 1 (12.8)
Vikings Offense – No. 18 (21.5) | Saints Defense – No. No. 32 (32.0)
On the field Sunday will be the league’s best scoring defense (Minnesota) and the NFL’s worst scoring defense (New Orleans). The saving grace for the Saints here is that the Vikings offense has been abysmal to start the season. The Vikings are the first NFL team since the 1930s to go 4-0 to open a season despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in two of those games.
The Saints’ passing offense has been its one bright spot all season so far led by quarterback Tyler Shough. If he continues to shine against Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, it will be quite the statement for the second-year passer.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-23 (No. 25) | Vikings – plus-35 (No. 5)
The Saints’ 19-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday swelled the point margin for New Orleans in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ special teams has done a lot of heavy lifting to get points on the board while the defense keeps opposing scoring low.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 4 (278.5) | Vikings Defense – No. 7 (194.8)
Vikings Offense – No. 32 (156.0) | Saints Defense – No. 15 (212.5)
Shough and his top option, wide receiver Chris Olave, are set to face their toughest test of the season against a Vikings defense that’s kept passing yardage to a minimum so far this season. The duo, along with tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant and spectacular catch specialist Devaughn Vele, have been consistent and productive through the first four games of the season. They now have a chance to prove themselves against one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense gets a potential breather after a game in which they struggled to contain the Falcons’ offensive attack. The Vikings’ passing offense doesn’t have much to show for it without high-level quarterback play and uncertainty around whether or not wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be available.
Veteran wideout, and New Orleans native, Odell Beckam Jr. recently signed with the Vikings’ practice squad. It’s uncertain whether or not one week of practice will be enough for him to make it up to the game day roster with a role, but he is familiar with the system and could be leaned on to help generate a jolt if Jefferson is unable to go.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 27 (88.5) | Vikings Defense – No. 7 (94.5)
Vikings Offense – No. 16 (106.8) | Saints Defense – No. 30 (147.8)
The Saints’ rushing offense has been virtually non-existent outside of the red zone and a few late-game rushes throughout games. This week, they’ll face a top defensive unit in the category that’s forcing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game while the Saints average less than 90. It’s not a great situation for New Orleans without starting back Travis Etienne Jr. and starting left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.
The Saints’ rushing defense was taken apart last game by the Falcons, who ran for 205 yards against New Orleans. Falcons’ weapon Bijan Robinson is one of, if not the, most talented backs in the NFL but the Saints didn’t exactly make it a challenge in the interior trenches either.
Vikings running back Aaron Jones is averaging 4.1 yards per carry in the run game while the Saints are surrendering an average of 5.1.
Turnover Differential
Saints – minus-5 (T-No. 27) | Vikings – plus-5 (No. 2)
The two teams are on polar opposite sides of the spectrum here. The Saints have turned the ball over five more times than they’ve taken it away (eight giveaways to three takeaways) and the Vikings have forced five more turnovers than they have committed (seven takeaways to two giveaways).
Minnesota’s two turnovers have both been interceptions thrown by quarterback Kyler Murray, which could offer the Saints one angle on defense to look to exploit. This game will come down to getting as many possessions as possible if the Saints can keep the Vikings’ low scoring habits alive for another week.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 50.0% (No. 5) | Vikings Defense – 22.6% (No. 1)
Vikings Offense – 34.4% (No. 25) | Saints Defense – 47.6% (No. 28)
Along with stealing possessions, it will be imperative for New Orleans to keep the ones they get alive. They’ve done so well after the first offensive drive of play so far this year. But Minnesota’s defense, which is the matchup story of this game, will put Saints Head Coach Kellen Moore and his offense to the test.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 39.1% (No. 24) | Vikings Defense – 45.8% (No. 2)
Vikings Offense – 37.4% (No. 17) | Saints Defense – 30.1% (No. 29)
The Vikings have the No. 2 pressure rate in the NFL on defense while blitzing at the highest rate in the league. Flores sends his defense on blitzes over 67% of snaps. Shough has seen quite a bit of aggressive blitzing deployed against him and the Saints’ offense this year. That won’t come to an end against Minnesota. In fact, it’s only going to dial up.
Saints edge rusher Chase Young was kept at bay in Week 4 with a strong gameplan by the Falcons. He’s been the team’s only consistent source of pressure. Expect teams to continue to focus their protection efforts his way until the Saints uncover someone else that can present a threat without blitzing.
