SEC Week 7 Picks: Halfway there, and some teams are living on a prayer
Bang. No one thought I could sneak a Bon Jovi lyric into a generic picks article. Look how silly those people look now.
It’s Week 7 which means we are at the halfway point of the season. It also means it’s time to make some picks for what is once again one of the biggest weekends of the year. There are three top 25 matchups in the league this weekend, including two top 15-games that could shape the landscape of the college football playoff.
It was a bad week last week. We got ahead of our skis a little and the upsets around the conference came back to bite us. We went 3-4 and are now 53-13 on the season. Here’s to the chase of a perfect weekend once again,
The appetizers
The Citadel at Texas A&M
Texas A&M 31, The Citadel 7
Arkansas at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 34, Arkansas 27
Auburn at Georgia
Georgia 33, Auburn 13
Kentucky at Oklahoma
Oklahoma 27, Kentucky 17
The main courses
Florida at Texas
I fully expect Florida head coach Jon Sumrall to tell the media this week something corny like, “I hate Texas. I hate brisket. I don’t even have a horn in my car because that’s how much I hate (long)horns.”
This is the ultimate get-right game for Texas. The Longhorns have struggled at times in the passing game and offensively, but Florida’s porous secondary should fix that. The Gators need to get the run game going again, but that’s a tall task against this Texas defense. Florida is still way ahead of schedule from where everyone thought they’d be in Year 1, and a win in Austin would be massive for them. However, this is a must win for Texas and head coach Steve Sarkisian. I expect Texas to pull away late in the second half.
Texas 37, Florida 23
Mississippi State at LSU
Mississippi State is ranked six spots higher than LSU, yet they are a two-touchdown underdog. This game comes down to two things. One, how healthy is quarterback Kamario Taylor and his legs? And two, how effective will Mississippi State be in the run game? This offense of head coach Jeff Lebby is predicated off the run, and without it, they are completely one dimensional. That works against teams like Minnesota, but we also saw what that can look like against a better defense like Alabama. If Fluff Bothwell is also too banged up to go expect LSU to pin its ears back and come after Taylor all day. They’re second in the league in sacks, and if Taylor can’t run he’ll be a sitting duck.
The defense for State has struggled this year, and the best bet is LSU over 34.5 points.
LSU 38, Mississippi State 23
Alabama at Tennessee
This is a tougher spot for Alabama than people realize. The Vols are really good defensively and lead the SEC in sacks this season with 25. They get a ton of pressure from the interior of their defensive line, and Alabama’s starting center is injured. The Vols will want to run the football to take the pressure off a quarterback making his second career start. They should be aided by the absence of Alabama DL Terrance Green. The question I have in this one is, how beat up is Alabama after playing such a physical game against Georgia? It’s on the road, in a hostile environment, and one of the biggest rivalries in this league.
If Alabama wins they should be a shoe-in for the CFP with their only other truly difficult game the rest of the year being a road trip to Baton Rouge. I think they will win, but it will be a close game that will be uncomfortable throughout.
Alabama 27, Tennessee 23
Missouri at Ole Miss
Ole Miss looked like a different defense after the bye week. They held Vanderbilt’s run game in check and will need to do the same this weekend against the SEC’s leading rusher Jamal Roberts. This is a huge game for both teams and features two quarterbacks that are very familiar with each other since they were teammates a season ago. Trinidad Chambliss is the most clutch quarterback in America. Austin Simmons is tied for the fewest interceptions in the SEC with just one, but he also leads all starting quarterbacks in turnover worthy plays at over 10.7%.
The metrics line up nicely for Missouri, but the run game has been inconsistent. Yes, they have the SEC’s leading rusher by a lot, but they don’t distribute carries amongst an RB2. He’s sprung explosive runs late in games and racked up a ton of yardage against teams beaten down, with no chance to come back. That being said, they have way too many runs that go for less than two yards. It hasn’t exactly been a grinding novocaine type running game, it’s been middling & then explosive.
The only QB they’ve played with a pulse was a fairly healthy Kamario Taylor, and they got beat, in a close game, on the road. Taylor beat them downfield with a trio of fast receivers, but none of which are as good as Deuce Alexander. Expect this to be a close game throughout with Ole Miss holding a slight lead late. At some point one of those turnover worthy plays will actually result in a turnover, and I expect Ole Miss to seal the win late.
Ole Miss 35, Missouri 27
