It’s an unlikely battle of three-win teams for the top of the NFC South division as the New Orleans Saints host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Saints are coming off of a nail-biter victory in overtime over the Cleveland Browns in Week 9, a week in which the Saints were the only team in the division to get a win.
Now, the Panthers are heading to New Orleans looking to get their first win against the Saints since the 2024 season. With an improved passing defense, and a surging quarterback in Bryce Young, Carolina looked like the far-and-away favorite to outpace the division early and recently took the Denver Broncos to the brink until a sack-fumble closed the door on their comeback.
However, the outlook has shifted as the Panthers have now lost three in a row and are hoping to avoid a fourth-consecutive loss to the Saints, who are looking to win two straight games for the first time this season.
Here is a look at how both teams match up across a number of key statistical categories.
Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense (Points Per Game)
Saints Offense – No.15 (23.1) | Panthers Defense – T-No. 28 (27.4)
Panthers Offense – No. 11 (24.9) | Saints Defense – No. 27 (27.0)
It’s a pretty even matchup for Saints quarterback Tyler Shough against the Panthers defense and Young against the Saints. Both scoring offenses are a tier outside of the top-10 in the league, but both defenses surrender points near the league’s highest rate. This one could be a shootout with a big day for explosive plays.
Point Differential
Saints – minus-31 (No. 22) | Panthers – minus-20 (No. 19)
With each team at 3-5, it’s not surprising to see both with double-digit scoring margins going the wrong way. The Panthers are 1-3 in close games, while the Saints are 3-3. So New Orleans tends to keep things close and the Panthers are often playing to a deficit one way or the other.
Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 14 (230.5) | Panthers Defense – No. 9 (211.5)
Panthers Offense – No. 4 (261.1) | Saints Defense – No. 28 (236.6)
For a while, Shough and Young sat atop the NFL in passing yards, but the production has slowed through the area for both offenses over the last few weeks. The Saints could see a boost with rookie Jordyn Tyson set to see his role continuing to grow, which will benefit both Shough and fellow wideout Chris Olave.
But the Saints’ passing defense is vulnerable, especially to big passing plays. New Orleans is tied for surrendering the eighth-most 20-plus yard passing plays in the NFL with 28 while the Panthers have given up the fewest along with the Seattle Seahawks at 18.
The difference in this part of the matchup could come down to big play generation.
Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards Per Game)
Saints Offense – No. 26 (95.3) | Panthers Defense – No. 28 (133.4)
Panthers Offense – No. 23 (101.3) | Saints Defense – No. 29 (133.9)
New Orleans took a major step forward in its run game last week leaning on running back Audric Estime upon his return to the Saints. In return, the team was able to gain 160 rushing yards against the Browns and will now face another vulnerable rushing defense with the hopes of also returning star back Travis Etienne Jr., who has been sidelined since Week 3 with a hamstring injury.
Even without Etienne, the team may have figured something out with Estime as its lead back. New Orleans will have to absorb the loss of center Erik McCoy who head coach Kellen Moore said his injury likely won’t have long-term impact, but will miss time with a biceps injury.
Turnover Differential
Saints – minus-6 (No. 28) | Panthers – minus-1 (T-No. 18)
New Orleans just won its first game of the Moore era in which it lost the turnover battle. Getting back on top of that battle should be a key focus this week. The Saints have not been a high-level turnover generating defense. Currently, their minus-6 margin is one of the lowest in the league.
Third Down Conversion Rate
Saints Offense – 43.5% (No. 7) | Panthers Defense – 47.7% (No. 31)
Panthers Offense – 37.7% (No. 19) | Saints Defense – 47.2% (No. 28)
Both the Saints and Panthers have struggled to get off of the field on third downs. The Saints offense has been the better unit at converting and staying on the field at a higher rate. In either case, it’s warranted to expect the game will be a high-scoring one. Each offense may be able to control the ball well enough to extend its chances to put points on the board.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated
Saints Offense – 35.7% (No. 15) | Panthers Defense – 35.6% (No. 16)
Panthers Offense – 43.9% (No. 30) | Saints Defense – 32.2% (No. 26)
Last week, the Saints took advantage of the Browns’ vulnerable offensive line by generating their highest defensive pressure percentage of the season and sacking quarterback Shedeur Sanders five times. Getting after Young, who is a much better athlete and escape-artist at quarterback, will be critical to the Saints’ success in this game.
