Starting Five: SEC Tournament seeding and upset alerts

By Chris Marler

Listen closely, and you’ll hear a collective sigh of relief coming from Baton Rouge and Columbia, South Carolina. Both teams can finally exhale now that the SEC regular season has ended. Meanwhile, the other 14 teams remain locked in a battle for more than just a trip to Nashville—tournament seeding is on the line during the final weekend of SEC play.

Here are the five things to watch this Saturday.

1. The IBOB is back

Alabama and Auburn will face off in Neville Arena for their final regular-season game. This showdown has been anticipated for weeks. However, what few could have predicted is that both teams would enter the matchup following losses. Throughout the season, these two have consistently ranked among the nation’s top ten. Yet, both stumbled in midweek matchups, with Alabama falling to Texas A&M and Auburn suffering a defeat against Florida, both top-20 opponents.

Final. pic.twitter.com/SEtY1oRiCs

— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) March 6, 2025

Back home Saturday to celebrate our seniors. #WarEagle | @carrier pic.twitter.com/HPZ9pxZYNi

— Auburn Basketball (@AuburnMBB) March 5, 2025

There’s no love lost between these two teams in any sport. However, with the bar being raised so dramatically for each basketball program in the last five years, the Iron Bowl of Basketball feels more heated than the football game played in late November each year. It’s certainly been more competitive on the hardwood. 

What’s on the line? The hay is pretty much in the barn for Auburn at this point. With a No. 1 seed already secured in both the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, Auburn has little at stake. However, Alabama has much more on the line.

A win would solidify the Tide as the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament, allowing them to avoid a potential showdown with Auburn until the finals. Additionally, a victory could push Alabama back into contention for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Most importantly, though, Alabama needs to stop its late-season slide, having lost five of its last seven games. A win on Saturday could provide the momentum they desperately need heading into postseason play.

2. Bracketology

Surprisingly there has been very little change since the last time Joe Lunardi updated his bracketology. There are 12 teams from the SEC slated to make the tournament. Georgia and Arkansas have secured spots among the last four teams earning byes in the tournament. Meanwhile, the two newcomers remain just outside the bubble, fighting for a chance to break in.

Oklahoma holds the top spot in the first four out, while Texas sits third on the list. The two teams will face off this weekend in Austin, battling for a crucial win. It’s unclear how much a win would mean for moving either team into the field of 68. However, a loss will almost certainly leave either team out.

3. Seeding for Nashville

Another thing to watch on Saturday is what teams will move up or down in the standings. That’s primarily a big deal for the seeding for those teams in the SEC tournament next week. The most obvious chance for teams moving up or down is in the No. 3 and 4 seeds with Alabama and Tennessee. 

Tennessee currently sits at No. 4, despite having a win over Alabama a week ago. The good news for the Vols is that they will host South Carolina on Saturday. Since the Gamecocks have remained in last place in the SEC all season, Tennessee has a prime opportunity to secure a much-needed win. That game should almost certainly be a win for the Vols, especially at home. A win for Tennessee and a loss for Alabama at Auburn will flip the seeds for those two teams. 

Elsewhere, the Kentucky and Missouri game should have big implications, as well. Missouri currently sits at No. 6 overall with a 10-7 record in the SEC. Kentucky sits at 9-7 in the league and No. 8 in the standings. It will be a tough road for Kentucky playing at Missouri. The Tigers are 18-1 at home this season.

4. What has happened to Johni Broome

There are two things I feel very confident in currently:

1. Auburn’s loss to Texas A&M is not something that should cause any panic on the Plains.
2. Johni Broome would rather win a national title than national player of the year. 

However, it still needs to be asked—what has happened to Broome at the end of the season? 

Broome has been a double digit machine this season. Throughout the year, he has averaged 18 points and 11 rebounds per game while also contributing over 3 assists and 2.7 blocks per game. However, in the last two games, his production has sharply declined. He has scored fewer than 10 points and grabbed fewer than 8 rebounds in each matchup. Even more concerning, he has failed to record a single block in both games. Most worrisome of all is his inefficiency shooting, particularly near the rim, where he has struggled to convert opportunities.

Broome has only taken nine shots in each of his last two games. That’s tied for the second fewest attempts in any game this year in SEC play. He’s just 7-of-18 from the field and just 3-of-8 from the line. Expect that to change on Senior night this Saturday against Alabama. Last time they met, he finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds. He’s due for another breakout. 

5. Who’s on upset alert?

Once again, it’s time for the upset special pick of the week. Over the last eight SEC upset picks, we’ve gone 6-2. Now, the question is—who’s on upset alert this weekend?

Only three real possibilities stand out: Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas. Missouri hosts Kentucky, but with an impressive 18-1 home record this season, the Tigers should handle business. That leaves Texas and Arkansas as the top upset candidates. Texas appears especially vulnerable, having lost six of its last eight games, often to lesser competition. However, Oklahoma has struggled on the road, posting just a 1-7 record in SEC play.

That brings the focus to Fayetteville. Arkansas is officially on upset alert this week. The Hogs are coming off a huge emotional win against Vanderbilt on the road in Memorial Coliseum. Mississippi State is somewhat reeling right now after losing three of their last four games. However, they are one of just five teams in the conference with a winning record on the road this season. Look for Chris Jans to steal one in Bud Walton Arena with Arkansas’ newfound security after being projected as a lock to make the NCAA tourney. 

Check out more of our SEC coverage here.