By Hunt Palmer
March is here.
For Mississippi State, this time of year is about position in the NCAA Tournament. For LSU, it’s about trying to find wins wherever possible.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs as a No. 7 seed in his latest Bracketology. The more wins Mississippi State can come up with to avoid those No. 1 and No. 2 seeds on the first weekend, the better for Chris Jans’s team.
It’s been up and down in January and February for the Bulldogs.
They swept hated in-state rival Ole Miss and crushed a once top 10 Texas A&M team by 16. They’ve also lost their last two times out to Oklahoma and Alabama by giving up a total of 204 points in those two outings.
Jans has built his program on defense and toughness, but this team plays a little differently. They’re better on offense and rely on the three ball.
For LSU, the turnover problems have been solved. The Tigers haven’t committed more than 12 turnovers since February 1 when Texas throttled LSU in Baton Rouge. The issue now is very clearly the defensive glass where LSU has not found an answer.
SECOND SHOTS
There’s really no point in starting anywhere else. Look at these LSU national rankings:
Defensive Efficiency: No. 83
Opponent Shooting Percentage: No. 46
Defensive Rebounding Percentage: No. 319
Opponent Offensive Rebounds per Game: No. 357 (of 364)
LSU is actually a top 50 defensive team when it comes to forcing misses. They just can’t rebound the misses. Only Prairie View A&M, North Florida, Cal Poly, South Dakota, New Orleans, Merrimack and Morgan State allow more in the nation, and I bet you can only point to one of those on a map.
I don’t have an answer to fix it, but it sure is easy to identify. Mississippi State’s best rebounder is 6-foot-10 KeShawn Murphy. He’s a load, and if LSU doesn’t get a body on him, he’ll grab 11 offensive rebounds and take the game over.
MISS (BUT KEEP SHOTING) STATE
The Bulldogs rely heavily on the three ball. They just don’t shoot it all that well. Only Florida and Alabama shoot more threes than the Bulldogs in the SEC. State ranks No. 46 nationally in threes attempted. Their percentage is No. 309 in the nation, though. That’s startling.
In fact, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a stat line like RJ Melendez’s. In league games, he’s 11-for-57 from deep. That’s a paltry 19 percent. I’ve seen plenty of 19 percent shooters, but usually they’re bigs who are 2-for-11. Melendez is hoisting up four every game.
Josh Hubbard can shoot it. He’s the super sophomore combo guard who does a lot of the ball handling. He scores 18 a night in SEC play to lead the team. He also dishes out 3.5 assists per game to pace the Bulldogs. Curtis Givens has a size advantage on Hubbard, but the Tiger freshman will have his hands full with one of the league’s best playmakers.
CALL IT A CAM BACK
Understandably, Cam Carter has struggled the last two ballgames. LSU has asked the fifth-year guard to do everything for four months. Teams are keying on him, and he’s got to be feeling it in his legs.
That said, if LSU is going to win again, he’s going to have to get hot. Florida and Tennessee play elite defense, some of the best in the country. They combined to hold Carter to 6-for-25 shooting and 1-for-12 from three-point range. He totaled 19 points in the two games. He’ll have to top 19 Saturday against his former team if LSU wants to have any chance at all.
State is not the defensive team those two are. The Bulldogs rank No. 152 in defensive efficiency and just gave up 111 points to Alabama.
Carter must have a big afternoon.
