By Chris Marler
Ok, let’s just address the elephant in the room here…
Last week’s picks? Not great, guys. Not great at all.
I went 2-6 in Week 0 and was a last second TD from 1-7. But, we can’t focus on the past and make excuses. We aren’t Florida State. With that being said, let’s get into this week’s picks.
LSU Moneyline vs USC
It is worrisome that this line has dropped from -6 to -4 throughout the week, and it’s a little concerning that there is some sharp money on the Trojans. But, there is absolutely no way LSU is losing to Lincoln Riley and starting a fifth straight season 0-1. It may be closer than Tiger fans are comfortable with, but LSU is going to run the ball all night at USC and leave Vegas with a dub.
UGA 2nd Half -6.5 vs Clemson
For whatever reason UGA was plagued with slow starts throughout most of last season. The Dawgs averaged less than 7 ppg in the first quarter in 2023, but they averaged almost 33 ppg in the final 45 minutes. And they were dominant in the second half of games, ranking 7th in FBS in second half scoring offense (17.4 ppg) and finishing 3rd in the country in 2nd half points allowed at just 6.8.
Tyler Van Dyke Over 1.5 TDs vs Western Michigan
Van Dyke has been up and down during his collegiate career, but the addition of Phil Longo as the new OC in Madison should be great for all parties involved. Longo was the OC at UNC the last four years and turned Sam Howell and Drake Maye into elite QBs in the ACC.
Van Dyke is also playing against a Western Michigan defense who traditionally struggles with Power Four opponents. Over the last three seasons, they’ve played six P-4 opponents, giving up an average of 41 ppg and 17 total passing TDs. The line is set at 1.5 Passing TDs and WMU gave up two of those to Iowa a season ago which is damn near impossible.
Tennessee to score on 1st Possession
It’s been awhile since Tennessee has had this much hype heading into a season, and a lot of that is because of a former five-star and future phenom at QB, Nico Iamaleava. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country when they’re on script. Heading into last season they scored first in 27 of Josh Heupel’s 32 career games in Knoxville. They should be very crisp in their opening series against FCS UT-Chattanooga
Syracuse -16.5 vs Ohio
Syracuse kicks off the Fran Brown era versus Ohio with a ton of excitement around the program. They brought in 19 players from the transfer portal and finished with a Top 25 class. The class had seven players from the SEC including four from UGA and was highlighted by former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord. Sharps are on Syracuse out in Vegas. And they’re on them BIG. As of Friday morning 55 percent of the total bets for this game were on Ohio, but 75% of the total money is on the Orange. Anytime that happens, it’s a good sign to follow the money.
LOCK OF THE WEEK – Alabama QB Jalen Milroe Over 1.5 Passing TDs
This pick is just as much about Milroe as it is his new coach. But, anyway you look at it, all signs point to HAMMERING the over. Milroe finished last season with at least two passing TDs in seven of his last nine games. And he’s running a Kalen Deboer offense that will look to make a statement in the first game of the post-Nick Saban era.
Deboer’s QBs throw the ball around 35-40 times a game, and in his last two seasons at Washington, Michael Penix put up huge numbers in spots like this versus G-5 schools. In four games vs non-P4/5 opponents, Penix threw 14 TDs including nine total in the two season openers.
Other Bets I like (but am too scared to go in-depth on because of going 2-6 last week…
- UGA -12 vs Clemson
- South Carolina -20.5 vs Old Dominion
- Nebraska -27.5
