By Chris Marler
Last week we got back on the right track, and the new baby picks energy portion of the article went 6-1. This week, we are sticking to our guns and doing what we do best- hammering first half and first quarter spreads and going heavy on one specific game on the board.
And, I’ve got deep dives on deep dives to back up the plays.
So, if we don’t win money this week, blame the analytics and stats, not me. On to Week 5.
Ole Miss -6.5 first Quarter, -9.5 first half & -16.5 full game vs Kentucky
This line seems skewed because of how Kentucky played against Georgia, but don’t be a prisoner of the moment. Ole Miss is averaging 18 ppg in the first quarter of games so far this season which ranks second in the country. Kentucky is averaging around three.
Kentucky is 4-15 versus ranked teams since 2019 and is averaging 10 ppg less on the road than at home over the last four seasons. Ole Miss is also outscoring opponents 220-22 so far this season. Kentucky will need to score at least 30, and they’ve managed to do that only twice in their last 18 games against SEC teams.
Clemson -6.5 first quarter vs Stanford
Since the Georgia game in the season opener, Clemson has regrouped and become an offensive juggernaut. They’ve outscored opponents 63-0 in the first quarter in their last two games, and 101-20 in the first half as well. In those two games, Clemson scored a touchdown on 12 straight drives that Cade Klubnik was in at QB.
Clemson. Clemson early.
Auburn score first vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s defense has been elite all season, but their offense has been horrible. They made the right decision by benching Jackson Arnold. But starting a true freshman quarterback on the road in the SEC is not traditionally a recipe for success. Auburn needs a bounce back win in a BIG way after the Arkansas and Cal debacles. This is their last home game in a five-game stretch that kicked off the season.
Expect Auburn to finally get it right on offense enough to put some points up early and play well enough defensively to keep the freshman quarterback and very limited cast for OU out of the endzone.
Bama vs Georgia – Full Betting Breakdown
Betting Card
– second half highest scoring half
– Arian Smith Over 40.5 yds
– Germie Bernard Over 43.5 rec yds
– Carson Beck Over 1.5 TDs
– UGA – 2.5
– Alabama score first
Betting Preview & Analysis
UGA has been very sluggish to start games for the last season and a half. Think of the Clemson game in week one or South Carolina last year. I don’t know if it’s by design or not, but I do know that they probably feel fine about the halftime adjustments they’ll make and pull away in the second half.
The Dawgs rank 89th and 101st respectively in first quarter and second quarter scoring. And, Georgia ranks 124th in FBS in first half ppg (4.5), but they rank Top 20 in second half ppg with 19.0. Alabama ranks in the Top 10 nationally in both first half scoring offense (25.7) and defense (3.0). Alabama also is third in FBS in fourth quarter ppg with 14.0. Expect a lot of scoring after halftime as opposed to before.
The wide receiver prop bets in this game all feel like free money, to be honest. Mainly because for Alabama they will most likely have to get yards through the air since it will be tough to run on the Bulldogs. For Georgia, there’s tremendous value in Dillon Bell and Arian Smith. Alabama’s secondary is very young and inexperienced, and there have been a lot of opponents running free behind the defense already in their first three games. Those teams just haven’t had a quarterback that was accurate enough to get them the ball. Carson Beck will. And Bama’s secondary is arguably the weakest position unit on the field between these two teams.
I like Georgia to win outright, and I honestly think they will win by 7-10 or more. This line has diminished after Georgia’s struggle at Kentucky despite them absolutely dismantling Clemson in the opener. This game is a perfect spot for Kirby and Bulldogs.
Numbers to Know
Georgia is 8-1 off a bye under Kirby.
Georgia won those 8 games by an average of 21.6 ppg.
Georgia is 17-2 against ranked teams since 2021.
Georgia is 33-4 in true road games under Kirby since 2017.
Georgia has allowed over 30 points 7 times in their last 85 games since 2018.
Kirby has 8 wins in revenge games the following regular season winning by an average of 28.8 ppg.
UGA. Hammer it.
Baby Picks Energy – Other games I like as well
– Penn State -16.5
– Auburn first half ML vs OU
– Texas -24 first half vs Miss State
– Ohio State -13.5 first half vs Michigan St
