By Chris Marler
We are officially at the halfway point of the college football season and it’s time to do what all good coaches, players, and teams do – regroup and make some halftime adjustments.
Full disclosure, I honestly haven’t kept up with my record week-to-week. Not because of laziness or being too busy to care, but because of embarrassment. Who picks Florida State to cover? Even worse, who picks Florida State to cover multiple games in a row?!
Regardless, it’s the biggest weekend of the season and unlike Alabama’s defense in Nashville last weekend, I am prepared. There’s a ton on the board that I like this week, so let’s make some money, and let’s start off in Dallas.
Week 7 Best Bets
– Texas to score 1st
– Texas -7 1st Half (Lock of the Week)
– Texas -14
– Oklahoma Team Total Under 17 points
– Clemson -6.5 1Q & -10.5 1H
– Alabama -10.5 1H
– Illinois -10 1H
– Vanderbilt +14.5
Texas-Oklahoma
I genuinely feel bad for Oklahoma in their first year in the SEC. They were give a brutal schedule, had to replace their entire offensive line, and by week four, lost their top five wide receivers. The Sooners have dominated this series since 2000, and have won 11 of the last 14 overall against Texas.
I’ve heard a lot of people hesitant about this line because of the series history and a potentially rusty Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Not to mention that eight of the last ten games in this series were decided by eight points or less. Don’t overthink it.
Oklahoma doesn’t have a generational quarterback in that locker room, and they don’t have an offensive mastermind anywhere near the facilities. Oklahoma’s offense ranks 100th or worse in eight major statistical categories including: rushing yards, yards per rush, passing yards, yards per attempt, total yards, yards per play, sacks allowed, and tackles for loss allowed.
Also, Texas is 12-7 against the spread and 18-1 straight up over its previous 19 games as a double-digit favorites under Steve Sarkisian.
Texas is the lock of the century. Every way you can get them.
– Texas to score 1st
– Texas -7 1st Half (Lock of the Week)
– Texas -14
– Oklahoma Team Total Under 17 points
Vanderbilt +14.5 at Kentucky
In what world is Kentucky two touchdowns better than this Vanderbilt team? The Cats have a good defense, sure, but the numbers say to pick the ‘Dores. Vanderbilt is coming off possibly the biggest win in program history while Kentucky is coming off a bye week after beating Ole Miss the previous Saturday.
Mark Stoops is just 4-10 against the spread coming off a bye week as a head coach and is just 5-10 overall in regular season games following a bye. Of those five wins, none came against teams with winning records. He is 9-14 overall including bowl games.
However, in those 23 total games, Mark Stoops and Kentucky have just one win by seven or more points following twelve or more days of rest from a bye week or bowl prep.
Clemson -6.5 1Q and -10.5 1H vs Wake Forest
Clemson is a wagon in the first quarter and first half this season. They lead the country in first quarter ppg with 18. This week they play a Wake Forest team who ranks 126th in first quarter scoring defense allowing 9.4 ppg. Not great for the Deacs.
Alabama -10.5 1H & 20.5 vs South Carolina
I don’t think this as much of a “Bama is pissed and going to come out with their hair on fire” situation that so many people are expecting. Alabama being mad about losing to Vanderbilt isn’t an advantage in this game. South Carolina is one of the worst offenses in the SEC and will not be able to score anywhere close to hang with the Tide.
Carolina does have a good defense that could frustrate Jalen Milroe and a MASH unit of young receivers, but they will not score enough on what is not a great defense to begin with.
Best Prop Bets for this game
LaNorris Sellers over 27.5 Rush yds
Sellers has run for 55 yards or more in three of the four games he’s played in.
CJ Dippre over 22.5 rec yds
Dippre has six catches for 104 yards in his last two games. He’s been targeted more often due to Alabama’s injuries at receiver.
Illinois -10 1H vs Purdue
I know, I know, betting on an Illinois-Purdue football game feels like a problem. However, like I always say, I’m not a degenerate, I’m dedicated. And, that dedication and research led me to find a beautiful, evergreen cash cow of a team named Purdue late last night.
Purdue is awful. Like awful awful. They’re 1-4 this season with that win coming against an FCS school. Since then, they’ve lost four straight games by a combined 140 points. They’re ranked 123rd in scoring offense including 131st in the first half. Their defense ranks 125th or worse in almost every major defensive category across the board. That’s not an exaggeration. They are bottom ten in the country in almost every number that would matter statistically.
Illinois is coming off a bye, and are 4-1 overall this season and 4-0 against the spread.
Baby Pick Picks & Best of the Rest
Ole Miss score 1st
UGA -13.5 2nd Half
UGA/MSU 1st Quarter under 13.5
USC score first vs Penn St
UMass team total under 14.5
Tennessee -8 first half
LSU-Ole Miss
LSU +3.5
Caden Durham over 11 receiving yds
Mason Taylor over 40 receiving yds
Ole Miss score 1st
Over 62.5
