ESPN FPI Updated their analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week Eight slate. Seven of the eight games around the league this week are conference games while only Vanderbilt steps out of league play, continuing their quest towards bowl eligibility against Ball State.
There are some big games on the docket including two games featuring four teams ranked in the top 11 nationally. Here’s how the computers think this week’s games play out.
Auburn at 19 Missouri
FPI Prediction: Missouri 67.9%
South Carolina at Oklahoma
FPI Prediction: Oklahoma 65.7%
7 Alabama at 11 Tennessee
FPI Prediction: Alabama 53.6%
14 Texas A&M at Mississippi State
FPI Prediction: Texas A&M 80.7%
8 LSU at Arkansas
FPI Prediction: LSU 54.2%
Ball State at Vanderbilt
FPI Prediction: Vanderbilt 97.5%
5 Georgia at 1 Texas
FPI Prediction: Texas 76.3%
Kentucky at Florida
FPI Prediction: Florida 59.7%
The most interesting thing of note from the current projections and odds, is that the Vegas numbers seem to be going in a different direction than the FPI numbers are. Four games have seen pretty noticeable movement in Vegas sportsbooks while hardly moving at all in the FPI projections.
So far we’ve seen four games move by a point and a half at least this week including LSU (-1 to -2.5), Alabama (-1 to -3), Auburn (+6 to +4.5), and the biggest change, South Carolina (+4 to +1.5). Outside of that, the FPI number that sticks out like a sore thumb? Georgia, and the computers giving the Dawgs less than a 24 percent chance to win on the road against Texas.
Texas has clearly been the most consistent team in the SEC through half the season, but they’ve also been the least tested team in the conference as well, especially defensively. Through six games Texas has not faced an offense that is currently ranked in the top 66 nationally in total yards per game. They’ve also faced three teams ranked 119th or worse (Michigan, Louisiana Monroe, and Oklahoma).
