By Hunt Palmer
First place in the SEC is on the line Saturday night. Not in Athens, Austin, Tuscaloosa or Oxford. It’s in College Station for No. 7 LSU and No. 14 Texas A&M. While the path to this game has been similar for both, six straight wins after a disappointing season opener, the identities are not.
LSU has gotten hot using a remarkably consistent passing game and a surging defense. A&M has pummeled teams on the ground offensively and used a steady defense.
Mike Elko and Brian Kelly are both cerebral coaches with great staffs, and someone is going to take a big step toward Atlanta on Saturday night on Kyle Field.
Let’s take a look at some matchups that might decide this one.
Texas A&M Defensive End Nic Scourton vs. LSU OTs Will Campbell and Emery Jones
These dudes are about to be rich. Mel Kiper’s first Big Board listed Scourton at No. 6, Campbell at No. 15 and Jones as his No. 5 tackle. It would not be a surprise to see all three players go in the first round in April.
Campbell has been a rock for three seasons. He’s only allowed one sack this year and played 56 pass snaps versus Ole Miss without allowing a single pressure. Jones has been excellent in pass protection as well, though his Pro Football Focus run grades have been suspect.
Scourton is as good an edge rusher as there is in college football. He led the country in sacks last season at Purdue and has flashed that ability through seven games at Texas A&M. He’s 6-foot-4 and 285 lbs, and he uses both his strength and speed to make plays in the backfield. The Bryan, Tex., native has 11 tackles for loss on the season which is good for sixth nationwide. He’s got 4.5 sacks, and two of those came in an Arkansas game he took over. Scourton had four tackles behind the line including a strip sack of Taylen Green that iced the game.
Elko would like to rush four to get home to Garrett Nussmeier. Scourton is his best shot at that. He’ll line up on either side of the line of scrimmage, so both Campbell and Jones will have their tries. Arkansas rusher Landon Jackson won some pass rush reps last week but wasn’t able to get Nussmeier to the ground.
Like Arkansas, Texas A&M will struggle mightily to match up with LSU’s wide outs. So, the pass rush is paramount. If Scourton and his teammates up front can’t win, LSU will move the ball. In a raucous Kyle Field, a couple of big sacks could change the momentum or the game.
Texas A&M Cornerbacks vs. LSU Wide Receivers
That first matchup leads us directly to this one. Kyren Lacy, CJ Daniels and Aaron Anderson are going to be a problem for Texas A&M. BJ Mayes (UAB), Jaydon Hill (Florida) and Will Lee (Kansas State) transferred in to help A&M in the secondary this year.
The results have been middle of the pack in the SEC thus far. Texas A&M ranks eighth in the SEC in passing yards per game allowed. The SEC is a middling passing league this year. LSU, Georgia and Ole Miss are the only teams who have consistently done a good job throwing the ball.
A&M has played Arkansas, Florida, Missouri and Mississippi State in the league and Notre Dame in non-conference. Arkansas’s passing offense ranks highest in the country, 26th, among those opponents.
As we found out with Ole Miss and Arkansas defenses, LSU’s passing offense was a step up in class for both. The Tigers had a lot of success through the air in both games. That figures to continue on Saturday if Nussmeier is kept upright.
Daniels really provided a nice safety blanket for Nussmeier in the short passing game against Arkansas. Lacy is a mismatch for most on the outside. Now Trey’dez Green has made a move to wide receiver for another mismatch.
Last week I thought the LSU running game was going to be the key, and the Tigers got that going. This week I think Elko is going to bring a lot of pressure. It’ll be important for the LSU wide outs to win early. At times, getting separation has been an issue for this group. That can’t be the case on Saturday.
Good Conner Weigman vs. Bad Conner Weigman
There’s a real “Me, Myself and Irene” situation going on in College Station at quarterback. You recall when “Good Bo Wallace and Bad Bo Wallace” were both taking snaps for Ole Miss. This is that but with more talent.
Weigman was excellent in the 2022 win over LSU as a true freshman. He made all the right throws, all the right runs. And Devon Achane helped out a little bit. But two years later, Weigman hasn’t shown consistent progression.
His opener against Notre Dame was putrid. He finished 12-of-30 for 100 yards and two interceptions.
He returned from injury against Missouri and lit it up. He completed 82 percent of his throws, 18-for-22, for 276 yards and only took one sack.
Then he reverted back to disastrous against Mississippi State. He threw a pair of interceptions from very clean pockets and had two potential pick sixes dropped on the same drive. He was inaccurate and unsure most of the game after the first drive.
Weigman has lot of physical tools and a really good running game to help him. He just makes…really bad throws sometimes. A couple of bad turnovers against LSU will probably spell doom for the Aggies as it did for Arkansas last week. But, A&M has some talent at wide receiver in Noah Thomas and Cyrus Allen who might be able to beat a sometimes-shaky LSU defensive back unit. The question becomes, can Weigman make the plays necessary?
Truth be told, this final “matchup” likely decides the game. Scourton probably wins a few reps against Campbell and Jones who win more of them. LSU’s passing game will probably be steady and productive. So will A&M’s run game. But I don’t think either completely takes over. If Weigman posts a stat line similar to 20-for-27 268 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, A&M is probably going to win the game. If it’s 13-for-31 for 167 yards and 2 INT, LSU is going to win the game. Weigman is easily the biggest variable in the contest. Perhaps Marcel Reed is called upon to enter should Weigman struggle. But it doesn’t feel like this is one Elko wants to turn to a backup in.
The Aggies are at home and favored by about a field goal depending on where you look. That suggests these teams are nearly equal. That makes a lot of sense. They won’t feel equal after this one is over, though. One will have to walk a high wire the rest of the way including a visit from an archrival. The other will be likely be a 75-ish percent playoff probability.
