By Chris Marler
We had another winning week in Week 9. Not by much, but a win is a win, and money is money in this economy. Now we turn our attention to November. The sun disappears sooner, the games get bigger and the lights get brighter.
Daylight Savings Time sucks. Outside of old school Tom Rinaldi specials on College Gameday and ACC football, there are few things more depressing than it getting dark at 5:30 every night. We literally make the rules, guys. Just say it’s 7:00 instead of 6:00. And give us an extra hour of sleep anyway. I digress.
Alright, let’s refocus on the weekend slate because I am in full-fledged delusional self-confidence mode with this weekend’s picks. We are going to have our best week yet.
Week 10 Best Bets
– Florida Under 8.5 first half points
– UGA -9.5 first half
– Kentucky Under 14.5 Pts vs Tennessee
– Nebraska to score first
– Nebraska -3 first half
– Oregon -7 first half
– Northwestern/Purdue first half under 23.5 points
UGA -9.5 first half vs Florida and Florida under 8.5 total first half points
Kirby Smart genuinely may hate Florida even more than his fanbase does, and that is evident every single year Georgia plays the Gators. Under Kirby Smart, Georgia has been a program that thrives in the second half and makes elite coaching adjustments at halftime. That tends to lead to slow starts and clunky first halves for Georgia. But, not against Florida.
Since 2017…
- Georgia has won six of the last seven games against Florida
- They have won those six games by an average of 22.4 ppg
- In the first half of those six games, they outscored the Gators 125-20 and didn’t allow seven points in a first half in any of those games
- In the first quarter of those six games, they’ve outscored Florida 82-7 and didn’t allow a single point in the first quarter in five of the six
Florida has a true freshman quarterback, and Georgia is coming off a bye week. Tell me a time that has ever worked out for Florida outside of the Covid year.
Nebraska to score first and Nebraska -3 first half vs UCLA
First and foremost, Nebraska is a much better team than UCLA. The Bruins are 2-5 this year and have the 127th ranked scoring offense in FBS. They also rank 109th or worse in every quarter for scoring offense and average 9.7 ppg in the first half of games this season.
Nebraska is a different team when they are in Lincoln, especially in the first half of games. They average 18 more first half points at home (22.3 ppg) than on the road (4.3 ppg). And defensively, they give up nearly 10 less first half ppg at home (4.3 ppg) than they do on the road (14 ppg).
Oregon -7 first half vs Michigan
Oregon has been one of the most consistent teams in the country this season. Home, road, ranked opponent or bottom feeder, the Ducks have shown up each and every week in their first year in the Big Ten. Michigan on the other hand has struggled tremendously in their first year of not cheating – I mean first year without Jim Harbaugh. That’s what I meant.
Oregon is favored by 15 points in Ann Arbor. As a road favorite, Dan Lanning is undefeated straight up in his career with Oregon, going 11-0 overall and 9-2 against the spread. Oregon is winning those games by 26 ppg and covering by over 8 ppg. Since 2022, no coach has more outright wins as a road favorite than Lanning and Oregon.
Michigan’s offense is terrible and ranks 111th or worse in several major statistical categories including: scoring offense, passing offense, yards per play, yards per game, yards per pass attempt and quarterback passer rating. Oregon ranks third in the country in first half scoring offense with 23.3 ppg. Michigan might not score at all.
Northwestern-Purdue under 23.5 first half points
This may be the lock of the week. These two teams are awful, especially in the first half. Purdue is averaging 1.0 ppg in the first quarter of games this season, 2.7 ppg in the first half of games this season, and they haven’t scored a first half point since August 31 against Indiana State.
Northwestern isn’t much better. However, against all odds, Purdue is somehow even worse on defense than they are on offense. The Boilermakers rank 101st or worse in scoring defense in every single quarter including 130th in overall scoring defense and 124th in first quarter scoring defense.
These two teams have averaged a combined 9.7 ppg in the first half of games this season and rank 131st and 134th in FBS in plays per game. This matchup will be less offensive than a Kidz Bop album sung by Canadians.
Best of the Rest
– Northwestern to score first
– Marcel Reed anytime touchdown score at South Carolina
– Tennessee -9.5 first half
– Tennessee -14
– Clemson Over 19.5 first half points
– Nebraska -6.5
– Arizona at Central Florida Over 56
