By Chris Marler
ESPN updated its FPI analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 11 slate. There are eight games in total this weekend around the SEC, but there are only six featuring conference matchups. Week 12 and 13 in the conference bring about some of the more unique matchups in the league as we get formal divisional rivals, Top 12 opponents, and FCS opponents all in the same weekend.
Here’s a look at the odds to win each game from ESPN’s FPI predictor.
5 Texas at Arkansas
FPI Prediction: Texas 85.7%
Louisiana Monroe at Auburn
FPI Prediction: Auburn 92.6%
22 LSU at Florida
FPI Prediction: LSU 57.3%
23 Missouri at 21 South Carolina
FPI Prediction: South Carolina 69.5%
7 Tennessee at 12 Georgia
FPI Prediction: Georgia 61.7%
New Mexico St at 15 Texas A&M
FPI Prediction: Texas A&M 99.0%
What games and numbers that stand out most? There’s nothing too shocking in the initial numbers. The betting favorites are all favored to win. However, on the season underdogs in the SEC are 32-15-1 against the spread and going into last weekend were 16-3 against the spread on the road.
The one game that feels way off is LSU. Granted they’re coming off a tough loss, and we don’t know how they’ll look after what was supposed to be a college football playoff game eliminator. But, Florida has an injured backup quarterback playing at the very best. At the very worst, he is out, and that means they’ll be starting a third string transfer from Yale. I just don’t think that game will be as close as the computers do.
The only other relative surprise is the South Carolina-Missouri game. The Gamecocks have nearly a 70 percent chance to win that game according to FPI. Don’t forget that when the season started Missouri was the one favored by that same amount. Missouri has won this game five years in a row. That being said, this South Carolina team is playing like a team on a mission right now.
