By Chris Marler
We are back swimming in the deep waters of my own neurotic overthinking when it comes to these picks. So, we are going to keep it as simple as possible. This week we are going to stand by no prop bets and lean into the stats that have mattered most over this season. Only three picks, and all three are going to be winners. This is the week! I can feel it.
Tennessee at Georgia Under 48.5
We talk about the Tennessee offense all the time, and with good reason. However, the defense this season has been on another level. They haven’t just been good. They’ve been historically good.
Through nine games this season the Volunteerss haven’t allowed any team to score over 20 points on them. In the last 25 years, only three other SEC teams have been able to do that – 2011 Alabama, 2016 Alabama, and 2021 Georgia. If you aren’t familiar with those units, those are three of the best defenses in the history of college football. Statistically speaking 2011 Alabama is the greatest defense in modern college football history. That is how good this Tennessee defense has been.
It’s also worth noting that Kirby Smart has locked down Tennessee offenses under Josh Heupel more so than any other team the Volunteers have faced. Even the 2022 unit that was one of the best in college football was held to 13 points, and seven of that came in garbage time. Take the under.
LSU ML – Lock of the Week
There is absolutely no chance LSU loses this game. Period.
If you need some history as to why, then fine. LSU has won six of the last seven games against the Gators and have covered the spread in five of those seven. Dual-threat quarterbacks have crushed LSU. Florida doesn’t have that. Florida has a backup, true freshman quarterback coming off a hamstring injury. and they have a third string freshman quarterback transfer from Yale.
I don’t know about covering the four points, but I love the LSU moneyline play.
Missouri +14.5 at South Carolina
This is purely a system play, because I love South Carolina this season. If Drew Pyne plays quarterback for Mizzouri, then you can count this as a win for South Carolina. But, will they cover the spread?
Missouri has a Top 10 total defense this season. Also, road underdogs are 17-4-1 against the spread in SEC games. That is the best conference mark for road dogs through 11 weeks in the SEC since 1990. Take the Tigers to cover.
