By Charles Hanagriff
There is a great scene in the movie Ocean’s Eleven, where Las Vegas casino owner Andy Garcia is shown a video of his vault fully intact. Seconds later, it is shown blown up and robbed.
“In this town, your luck can change just that quickly,” says Brad Pitt, part of the crew that pulled off the heist.
Brian Kelly can relate.
Six quarters and just over two weeks ago, Kelly and LSU had first place in the SEC in their sights. The Tigers led Texas A&M, 17-7, in College Station with about six and a half minutes gone in the third quarter. The LSU defense had allowed only 156 yards and a touchdown to the home team.
Garrett Nussmeier had not thrown an interception in about seven quarters. The defense had allowed two touchdowns in the span of two games and change. LSU already had wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss, which looked good then, and actually look even better now. Life was good.
Then Nussmeier threw an interception, A&M went to their bullpen and everything changed.
Backup quarterback Marcel Reed scored on a run on the very first play. He would finish with 62 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. LSU lost the game but not the hold on their own destiny where the playoffs were concerned. Beat Alabama, and the road to the postseason would be very manageable.
But they didn’t beat Alabama. They did not even come close. With Tiger Stadium overflowing, and a clear directive to stop quarterback Jalen Milroe from running, the Tide quarterback rushed for 185 yards through an LSU defense that played like they had never seen a quarterback keep in their life.
They had.
Milroe shredded them for 155 yards and four touchdowns last season. He rushed for over 100 yards in only one other game. The 185 yards this season tops his previous high by 68 yards. Reed’s three touchdowns against LSU matched his CAREER total. A week later, South Carolina would hold him to 2.9 yards a carry.
Put another way, as rushers, these quarterbacks are not destroying every defense they play, just the one in purple and gold.
The Tigers looked unprepared against Alabama, which is hard to fathom when you consider the stakes and the prior results. Kelly is preaching consistency, but it’s in short supply.
If it were only the LSU defense out of sorts that would be one thing, but Nussmeier’s regression can’t be ignored. He played pretty well the first month of the season. His two interceptions against South Alabama seemed more careless than crucial in the blowout win. The two against Ole Miss erased by a pair of magnificent throws to win the game.
Following LSU’s most complete victory of the season at Arkansas, Nussmeier’s stock was rising, and it was a legitimate question to ask if he was a first-round pick.
Two games and five interceptions later, Nussmeier may have played his way into a senior season. That is, if he wants to maximize his slot. In the six games scouts will watch the most (subtract Nichols St, UCLA, and South Alabama), he’s thrown 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Add in a pick six against South Carolina that was called back on a ticky tack penalty, and it’s clear there is room to grow in Nussmeier’s game.
Whether he comes back or not is his choice. He will get a chance to be an NFL quarterback one day. When that day comes is up to him.
Not that he is getting much help from the LSU running game. The most explosive back the Tigers have is Caden Durham, who proved such on a 45-yard run early in the Alabama game. Why then, was he only in on 20 of 70 offensive snaps? Barring an undisclosed injury, that one is hard to explain.
As for Kelly, the big stage has been too big of late. Since beating Alabama on a gutsy two-point call in 2022, the second of back-to-back Top 10 wins, the Tigers are 2-7 against ranked teams. The 10-win seasons mean a little less when they end in exhibition style bowl games against depleted Big Ten teams.
What can be derived from the rest of this season? First, a clear accounting of who stays focused. It’s tough to finish the job when the main goals have been erased. Those that do can be counted on in the future.
Second, better cohesion between the head coach, coordinators and team. It was obvious when Kelly used the word “consistency” about 1400 times on Monday that there can be significant improvement in communications. They get four games to improve on that.
Third, a firm grip on the pressing needs of the 2025 team. Unfortunately, the transfer portal is going to be a large necessity again, as the Tigers indoctrinate the talented freshman class into SEC football.
The next three weeks will not erase the last two. Reaching the 12-team playoff is the expectation now, and short of a series of miracles, that isn’t happening. The next time the college football world turns their focus to LSU for six quarters, four of them will be against Clemson.
There is a lot to fix before then.
