Does it pay to play a weaker schedule? This year, it seems so
The latest College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday evening. As I’m writing this, it’s Tuesday, November 19th, which means the first games of the expanded 12-team playoff will officially be underway in a month. Remember not that long ago when we were told that expanding the playoff would diminish the regular season? What an all-time Freezing Cold Take.
A lot of things have stood out about this season. However, a few things have stood out to me more than the harsh reality that the strength of my schedule doesn’t seem to matter this year.
This season has had more parity than any year I can remember in nearly twenty years. That has especially rung true in the SEC, where roughly four to six teams are in a logjam in the standings, with each team barreling down inevitable parallel records of 10-2. And, as SEC fans, coaches, and athletic directors frantically try to learn tiebreakers and seedings, Big Ten teams like Indiana and Penn State are booking their flights for the postseason.
It’s maddening to think about. Just look at the numbers. The ESPN FPI Strength of Schedule rankings are one of the metrics the committee uses when ranking teams. Currently, seven of the top eight teams are from the SEC. No team in the conference ranks lower than 38th overall. Georgia has been ranked No. 1 almost the entire season, playing five of the Top 16 teams, four of the five away from home.
The committee had them as the first team out a week ago! Make it make sense.
Penn State is ranked fourth and has no win over a ranked opponent. Indiana is fifth but has played a strength of schedule ranked 106th in the country. Their best win is against Michigan, who is 5-5. Regardless, as it currently stands, Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State have a 95 percent chance of making the playoff. Penn State has the sixth-best odds at 88 percent.
All four teams are not only shoe-ins for the playoff and will almost certainly get a bye or home-field advantage, too. Not one of the four has an opponent-winning percentage over .500 on the season, either.
That’s not to say I don’t think an 11-1 or 12-0 Indiana team doesn’t deserve to be in the College Football Playoff. I do. However, it feels like this year, more than ever, playing a weaker schedule may pay off in the long run. That feels the opposite of what we thought would be true for most teams going into the 12-team playoff.
Teams that scheduled more difficult non-conference games will find themselves on the outside looking in in a few weeks. Look at the SEC, not just the Big Ten or other conferences. Ole Miss played nobody with a pulse for most of September and then lost to Kentucky. They later lost to LSU. But, thanks to winning the one big game left on their schedule against Georgia, they have a 63 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff.
How about Texas? We have been engrained with this idea that Texas is a world-beater this season, but they’ve played the weakest strength of schedule in the SEC (No. 38 overall). They’re off to their second straight 9-1 start, but only two of those nine wins have come against teams with a winning record. The two times they have played anyone worth a damn, they got a three-point win against Vanderbilt, and they got boat raced by Georgia on their home field. Yet, they’re a lock to make the college football playoff.
Doesn’t that feel a little skewed?
There are still three weeks left until selection Sunday, but from where it sits now, what was the benefit for any of these teams, especially in the SEC, to schedule anyone with a pulse?
