By Hunt Palmer
When people remember the 2024 Vanderbilt Commodores, they’ll remember Diego Pavia and the win over Alabama.
The Commodores were 0-6 all-time against Top 5 teams, so the students were justified in downing the goalposts and tossing them into the Cumberland River when the Tide tumbled in Nashville. Impressive and historic as that win was, it doesn’t tell the entire story of this Vanderbilt team.
The Commodores came back the very next week and handled Kentucky in Lexington. That marked the first time Vanderbilt had not trailed for any period of a two-game SEC stretch since at least 1960. Two weeks later, Texas came to Nashville and had to fight to leave town with a three-point win.
Yes, the Georgia State loss is a smear. South Carolina bullied this group a little bit. But the ’24 ‘Dores are more than a one-day wonder. Clark Lea’s team has consistently played a style unique to the SEC. They’ve dictated the terms of most of their games, and they’ll be bowling as a result.
In a year of historic achievements, Lea’s team would love to add a victory on a Saturday night in Death Valley. LSU’s job will be to respond to a brutally disappointing three-game stretch and rise to the occasion.
Here are some matchups to watch.
Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia vs. LSU’s Entire Defense
No team in the SEC asks for quite as much out of its quarterback as Vanderbilt. In the season-opening win against Virginia Tech, he carried the ball 26 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. He broke eight tackles along the way. He ran it 20 more times against Alabama. He’s tallied 34 more carries and 158 more yards than lead back Sedrick Alexander. Plus, the New Mexico transfer has thrown 15 touchdowns which is sixth in the SEC.
Everything Vanderbilt does starts with Pavia.
This is basically a triple-option offense with the added threat of a quarterback who will improvise when things break down. Perhaps Pavia’s greatest superpower is that with all the improvisation and playmaking, he doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s only thrown three interceptions on the season.
Bradyn Swinson, Sai’vion Jones and the Tiger linebackers must remain disciplined in the option game. We know that was a massive issue against South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama. No team in the SEC throws the ball less than Vanderbilt, so the run is always threat No. 1, and it starts with Pavia.
THE VAUNTED VANDY OFFENSE AND DIEGO PAVIA pic.twitter.com/MUFXWNuP8Y
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) October 26, 2024
But the back end has to be aware as well. That’s not because of weapon on the outside. Vanderbilt doesn’t have a wide receiver with more than 25 catches on the season. That’s 2.5 per game. Still, those receivers become threats when Pavia escapes and extends plays.
South Carolina did a great job of neutralizing Pavia, and the Commodores only managed seven points.
Vanderbilt Tight End Eli Stowers vs. LSU Linebackers and Safeties
Vanderbilt doesn’t have SEC-level weapons at wide receiver, but tight end Eli Stowers is a real talent. He made Bruce Feldman’s annual “Freaks” column for his 41’6” vertical and 10’8” broad jump. A high school state champion in the high jump, Stowers began his career as a four-star quarterback at Texas A&M. Jimbo Fisher pursued Stowers more fervently that Texas-product Jalen Milroe in the same high school class. Stowers is now the SEC’s leader in receiving yards by a tight end with 563.
FIRST DOWN DORES! pic.twitter.com/Egg2jRe7a1
— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) October 5, 2024
You see the shovel pass above. Vanderbilt will also throw Stowers screens as well as vertical routes. He’s basically the focus of the passing game, which, as previously mentioned, isn’t Vanderbilt’s bread and butter.
Still, LSU’s safety and linebacker play has been very suspect the last month. If those players can’t maintain focus and man their assignments, Vanderbilt’s disciplined attack will poke holes in LSU’s scheme.
Both Defenses vs. The Sticks
Offensively, these two teams couldn’t be more different. LSU throws it more than any team in the SEC. Vanderbilt throws it almost never. LSU’s quarterback plays from the pocket, makes pro level throws and turns the ball over. Vanderbilt’s quarterback runs the option, makes backyard plays and never turns it over.
However, there is one strong similarity. Both of these teams excel on third downs. LSU leads the SEC in third down conversions at 49 percent. Vanderbilt is third at 46 percent. In its losses this year, Vanderbilt has only converted 36 percent on third downs. LSU is still converting 47 percent in games it’s lost. More importantly, when Vanderbilt wins, they convert more than half of their third downs, 51 percent. Alabama could not get Vanderbilt off the field. Pavia and company picked up 12 of 18 third down tries.
That’s how Vanderbilt gets this done. No one in the SEC produces fewer plays of 10-plus yards than Vanderbilt. Even Oklahoma does it more often. It’s a slow, plodding possession game that requires precision on third down.
For LSU, it’s more about finishing drives than it is about converting third downs, but you generally can’t get to the red zone without handling business on third down.
These are two of the three worst third down defenses in the SEC, so success may be tough to come by for either unit. Whichever group can get off the field will likely win the game Saturday night.
