By Chris Marler
We went 2-1 last week, and it seems that our strategy of keeping it simple and just picking three games paid off. Naturally, this week I’m not going to follow that proven method. I’m headed back to my “throw as much sh*t at the wall and see what sticks” mindset.
I’m sure they won’t all be winners, but I can guarantee you that they were all well researched and statistically very logical. I think.
Regardless, there are over a dozen plays that I like this weekend, and most of them are around the SEC. So, Strap in and let’s ride. Here are the best bets for Week 13.
Big Picks Energy Best Bets for Week 13
- Alabama to score first – Lock of the Week
- Ole Miss to score first
- Texas -20
- Miami Over 40.5 points
- Theo Wease Over 50 rec yards
- Oklahoma Under 17.5 points
Best of the Rest
- Ole Miss -6.5 1st Half
- Ole Miss -9.5
- Notre Dame -13.5
- Ohio State/Indiana Over 26 1H Total
- Nebraska Moneyline
- Missouri -6.5
- Luther Burden anytime touchdown
- Brady Cook Over 227 pass yards OR 2 passing touchdowns
- Tennessee -41
I know, I know. That’s way too much action for the board during cupcake week. But hear me out and let me explain.
Notre Dame at Army
Army has played eight games against FBS opponents this season. Six of those eight games were against teams with a record of 3-7 or worse. Notre Dame needs a win, and they need some style points for the playoff committee. Army’s strength of schedule ranking is 134th out of 134 teams. And you thought Indiana hadn’t played anybody.
Pick: Notre Dame -13.5
Ole Miss at Florida
Since 2019, Lane Kiffin is 15-2 overall and 12-4-1 against the spread as a favorite on the road. Ole Miss looked like a championship level team against Georgia and beat the Dawgs like a drum. Then came the bye week to rest. I have to think that Kiffin and company used the off week to lock in and refocus on a potential playoff run.
However, every time I start to believe in Lane Kiffin, he does something to disappoint me. So, we shall see.
Picks
Ole Miss to score 1st -180
Ole Miss -6.5 1st Half
Ole Miss -9.5
Wake Forest at Miami
Wake Forest ranks 117th in first half scoring defense and 130th in passing defense. They’ve allowed 30 or more points in seven of their eight games against FBS opponents this year. Miami has scored 36 points or more in nine of their 10 games and are averaging 49 ppg at home this season. They’re also coming off a bye week.
Pick – Miami Over 41.5 points
Kentucky at Texas
I don’t know what the hell is happening in Lexington during Kentucky bye weeks, but these numbers are astounding.
Kentucky is 1-6 in their last seven games coming off a bye, losing by an average of 15.3 ppg.
The Cats have lost their last five games off a bye including this year to Vanderbilt. Mark Stoops is 4-11 all-time off a bye as the head coach at Kentucky which is the fourth worst of any active Power Four coach. And, if that’s not bad enough he’s also 3-34 all-time when he is a double-digit underdog.
Pick – Texas -20
Missouri at Mississippi State
Mississippi State ranks 100th or worse in nearly every defensive statistic. They’re 118th in scoring defense, have allowed at least 30 points or more in eight of their last nine games, and they are somehow even worse in conference games allowing over 41 ppg against SEC opponents.
State also ranks 121st in yards per attempt allowed, 128th in opposing quarterback rating and dead last in all of college football in opposing quarterback completion percentage. Brady Cook should have a really efficient day, and Theo Wease has had at least 50 yards receiving in seven of his last nine games. Take both of their props.
Picks
Missouri Over 30.5 points
Brady Cook Over 227 pass yds
Luther Burden Anytime TD
Theo Weese Over 50 yds
Alabama at Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t scored over 20 points in an SEC game all year. They scored 27 and 23 against Auburn and Missouri respectively, but they had a defensive touchdown in each game.
The Sooners are averaging just 15.2 ppg in SEC games, and the offense has gained over 300 yards just once in conference play. Meanwhile, Alabama has allowed two touchdowns in their last three games combined. (One of those was in garbage time in Baton Rouge.
Oklahoma also has the second most turnovers of any team in the SEC with 18, while Alabama is second in the country in takeaways with 24. I have a feeling this is a circle the wagons game for Oklahoma, and their defense will keep them in it for longer than Alabama fans will feel comfortable with. Ultimately, Bama should pull away if for nothing else than Oklahoma simply cannot score.
Picks
Oklahoma Under 17.5 points
Alabama to Score 1st
UTEP at Tennessee
Tennessee is currently the first team out of the 12-team playoff. They have two games left against UTEP and Vanderbilt to show the committee they belong. That means Saturday will most likely be a long day for UTEP as the Vols will be out to gain as many style points as possible against an inept non-conference foe.
Another reason to like Tennessee in this spot? UTEP sucks. Period.
They’ve won five games in the last two years combined and are 2-8 this season. This will be their fifth game against a Power Four opponent in the last three seasons and they are 0-4 in the previous four games. Also, three of those four losses were by 31 points or more, and they also failed to score more than ten points in three of the four.
EXTRA – Texas A&M at Auburn
I personally am staying away from this game because the line is incredibly fishy. Regardless, the matchup is a classic edition of a stoppable force meets a very movable object.
Stat of the Game
Texas A&M is 2-10 in their last 12 true road games
Since 2019, Auburn is 1-10 outright when they are a home underdog.
