Many have already begun to question whether or not Kubiak’s offense had been too reliant upon Hill in the first place. The offense produced an average 0.07 EPA per rush with him in the lineup against a -0.18 EPA per rush in games without him. That’s a stark contrast in terms of per-rush efficiency and scoring potential. Some have used these to even challenge that the hire of Kubiak was a miss.
However, the team has found success without him in the passing game, and there are other compounding circumstances to consider. So, in evaluating whether the Saints made the right choice in hiring their new offensive coordinator, the dataset used cannot fully rest on the laurels of the team’s Swiss Army knife.
The determination instead should be made based on the successes and failures of the Saints other potential options. In revisiting the list of candidates New Orleans interviewed for the position last offseason, it becomes very clear that Kubiak was indeed the right hire.
New Orleans interviewed 11 candidates, 10 of whom were external considerations, for the position before making their choice. Only four of those candidates landed offensive coordinator positions in 2024. Those four were Kubiak, Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, Las Vegas Raiders hire Luke Getsy and Shane Waldron who was hired by the Chicago Bears.
Kubiak and Robinson are the only hires of that quartet that still have their jobs. Getsy was fired in Las Vegas after Week 9 while Waldron was fired the following week.
The remaining seven candidates either stayed with their 2023 clubs, some in new positions, or took non-coordinator positions elsewhere:
Of the 11 candidates the Saints interviewed, only two are offensive coordinators following Week 13. One of them is Kubiak.
Yes, the Saints made the right choice.
The next piece of the evaluation should be conducted between Kubiak and Robinson. One has a team tied at the top of the NFC South while the other has a team two games behind in the same division. By that metric, Robinson has the advantage. However, a quick statistical analysis shows that Kubiak’s offense fares better in three of five major metrics.
Total Offense (Yards):
New Orleans: No. 12
Atlanta: No. 8
Scoring Offense:
New Orleans: No. 14
Atlanta: No. 19
Passing Offense:
New Orleans: No. 19
Atlanta: No. 4
Rushing Offense:
New Orleans: No. 10
Atlanta: No. 14
Turnover Rate:
New Orleans: 8.5%
Atlanta: 13.8%
Kubiak has the advantage in scoring, rushing and taking care of the football. All while also dealing with a combined total of 33 games missed by key offensive Week 1 starters including quarterback Derek Carr, the aforementioned Hill, center Erik McCoy and both top wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed among others.
Compare that to Robinson who has only had two Week 1 starters on offense miss a combined number of eight games. Both players were offensive lineman. Starting center Drew Dalman missed seven while starting guard Chris Lindstrom missed a single game. Both go-to running backs and starting wide receivers have been available for every game thus far, and while quarterback Kirk Cousins has played a major role in some of the team’s losses, he has been healthy enough to be on the field.
All of that is to be considered along with the losses of key depth pieces for multiple games as well such as running back Kendre Miller, backup offensive linemen and young wide receivers which has only multiplied some of the complications.
None of this is to say that Robinson would not have been a solid hire as well. He was atop the list along with Kubiak as the best fit for many projections. However, Robinson likely wasn’t even a real possibility for the Saints considering his already established relationship with Falcons head coach Raheem Morris. The two often discussed the opportunity to work together while they were on staff in Los Angeles.
Kubiak was clearly the right hire for New Orleans. While it is unfortunate that he may end up a one-and-done coordinator with the team, the fault is not his or his shortcomings which do exist. He is not a perfect play caller, no one is. If he is moved on from this offseason, it will likely come down to a decision made by a new head coach that is building out his ideal staff. The Saints made the right call. Unfortunately for Kubiak, he was dealt a difficult deck. However, he should be credited for the hands he has played with it.
