By Hunt Palmer
LSU travels to Houston on Friday to prepare for the Kinders Texas Bowl against Baylor. The Tigers finished the season the right way, taking care of home games against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Baylor has won six straight since starting 2-4.
LSU has been hit harder with opt-outs, losing both starting offensive tackles, their top two receivers and tight end as well as Sage Ryan in the secondary. Still, LSU has kept players like Bradyn Swinson, Sai’vion Jones, Zy Alexander and Greg Penn around.
Las Vegas has dubbed Baylor a two-point favorite in this one. Either way, it figures to be a competitive game. That’s far from a guarantee in bowl season.
I think there are a number or interesting matchups in this one. Let’s dive into a trio.
Baylor Quarterback Sawyer Robertson vs. LSU Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier
Generally, I discuss players who will be on the field at the same time, but it felt appropriate to toss the signal callers in together. Both have enjoyed tremendous seasons as the focal points of their offenses. Robertson lost the quarterback competition to incoming transfer Dequan Finn, but Finn went down in Week 2 against Utah, and Robertson has gone the rest of the way. The 6-foot-4 Lubbock native ranks fifth nationally in quarterback rating and tops the Big 12. He’s a point guard back there. Most of what Baylor does is around the line of scrimmage with slants and screens. He doesn’t rip far-hash out routes and take shots with much regularity. And he’s not a terrific athlete. He just plays within the system and controls the tempo.
Nussmeier won’t have the security blanket of Will Campbell and Emery Jones. Or Mason Taylor. Or Kyren Lacy. He’s going to have to shoulder a heavier workload in terms of decision making and playmaking. LSU will assuredly try to run the ball effectively with new offensive linemen in there, but ultimately this LSU team goes as Nussmeier goes. When he turns the ball over, LSU generally loses. When he’s efficient, LSU generally wins. That’s no different on New Years Eve.
Baylor Left Tackle Sidney Fugar vs. LSU EDGE Bradyn Swinson
Like Robertson, Fugar was not a starter for the opener. He was a rotational left guard. In the loss to BYU, Fugar was inserted at left tackle. He played there again the next week against Iowa State and hasn’t vacated the position since. Fugar is a South Carolina transfer who stands 6-foot-5 and checks in north of 340 lbs. The Bears are averaging 38.4 points per game, including 481.4 yards of total offense, 262.7 passing and 218.7 rushing, with him in the lineup. Baylor ranks fifth in the country in tackles for loss allowed.
Swinson has had a breakout season for LSU. He notched five sacks in his first four college seasons. He’s got 8.5 this year. He has 12 tackles for loss his first four years. He’s got 13 this season. Swinson has elected to play, and he’ll be needed. Baylor’s offensive system relies on timing and staying on schedule. Swinson’s job is to disrupt that with his speed off the edge. He’s got a quickness edge on Fugar, but the big Baylor tackle is a strong dude. It’ll be worth watching.
LSU’s New Offensive Line vs. Baylor Linebackers Matt Jones and Keaton Thomas
I have no idea who is playing offensive line for LSU. Miles Frazier will be out there, and DJ Chester is the center. Will Garrett Dellinger play his final game after tight rope surgery for a high ankle sprain? Who knows? Tyree Adams figures to play one tackle spot. Perhaps Frazier plays another. Bo Bordelon can as well. Brad Davis will field a starting unit, and that unit will probably prefer to run block than protect the passer. That’s generally how it works unless you have two early NFL Draft picks on the tackles like LSU has enjoyed the last three years. If this makeshift unit wants to run the ball, they’re going to have to deal with a dynamic duo of inside linebackers in Jones and Thomas. Nationally, Thomas ranks 31st in tackles and Jones No. 36. Both have topped the 100 tackle mark and are the first pair of linebackers at Baylor to surpass that threshold since 2012.
Caden Durham battled through that toe dislocation the second half of the year. He’ll be the healthiest he’s been since late September. That helps, but he’ll need the big guys up front to do the job. Brian Kelly has never coached a game without Campbell at left tackle. That starts Tuesday.
