Statistically Speaking: Saints vs. Raiders

By Ross Jackson

Sunday’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints (5-10) and Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) was supposed to be a revenge game for Saints quarterback Derek Carr. However, it looks unlikely that he’ll be back on the field in time. Even without that additional motivation, the Saints are still going to be heavily motivated to win this one after an embarrassing shut out on Monday Night Football. Here are some of the key statistics that could decide this game. 

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense:

Saints Offense – No. 22 | Raiders Defense – No. 27

Raiders Offense – No. 29 | Saints Defense – No. 17

It feels like this game will either be a low-scoring game, or some unexpected blowout. Neither team scores points particularly well, but neither defense stops production reliably either. The best advantage for New Orleans will be its scoring defense. While the unit surrendered quite a bit of yardage, New Orleans hadn’t allowed more than 26 points in the last 7 matchups until Green Bay’s 34-point output on Monday.

Point Differential:

Saints – -37 (No. 22) | Raiders – -126 (No. 28)

This is where the Raiders’ poor scoring output reflects its struggles to stop the opposition. The Saints had been within single digits in their plus-minus until the Packers. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 23 | Raiders Defense – No. 9

Who knew the Raiders had such a stout secondary? This is a big element of the game to keep an eye on as it is likely that rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will be starting for the Saints. He will be tested to move the ball down the field, but if he can produce in spite of that, it will be a great showing for the young passer. 

Raiders Offense – No. 14 | Saints Defense – No. 28

Another rookie, tight end Brock Bowers, will be a major impact player for the Las Vegas side as well. Leading all tight ends in receiving yards and yards after catch, Bowers presents a unique challenge at the position for the New Orleans defense which has allowed the second-most yards after catch on the season. 

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 13 | Raiders Defense – No. 13

Raiders Offense – No. 32 | Saints Defense – No. 30

Evenly matched on both sides, the Saints may come out on top here. The Saints defense has been torn apart in the run game, but will now match up with the league’s worst run game. Meanwhile, the Saints’ middling rushing attack will face the similarly ranked defense of Las Vegas. If running back Alvin Kamara won’t be able to play, expect veteran back Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be active and on the field against his old AFC West rivals. 

Turnover Differential:

Saints – -1 (T-No. 16) | Raiders – -17 (No. 31)

The Saints may be able to get back on the positive side of the turnover conversation Sunday. It’s been seven games without coach Dennis Allen and in that time the defense has generated just two takeaways. Las Vegas has been turnover prone, ranking No. 3 in the league with 28 giveaways. 

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated:

Saints Offense – No. 21 | Raiders Defense – No. 28

Raiders Offense – No. 25 | Saints Defense – No. 21

Rattler was under pressure on more than half of his dropbacks last week in Green Bay. That should not be an issue for the young quarterback against the Raiders. That is, unless the Saints gift Las Vegas a pass rush. With starting center Erik McCoy and left guard Lucas Patrick likely out for the rest of the season, it’s hard to predict which version of the Saints’ offensive line will show up on Sunday.