By Hunt Palmer
For different reasons, this weekend is massive for LSU and Texas A&M.
The Aggies have dealt with the same March and April hangover LSU suffered through last season. LSU’s was the result of a champagne-soaked celebration for winning the program’s seventh title. A&M’s is due a night of cheap whiskey shots to try to forget a title series loss and a coach that left College Station the day afterward.
LSU recovered, kind of. Texas A&M is running out of time.
On the LSU side this year, the Tigers are gaining on a top eight national seed, but it’s going to take some winning over the final three weekends.
Texas A&M’s SEC record (8-13) is poor considering their unanimous No. 1 preseason ranking. However, their baseball has been good for nearly a month.
The Aggies shook off a Liam Doyle-led no-hit run rule at the hands of Tennessee that sent them to 1-9 in league play by coming back the next day and bashing 11 home runs in a double header to take the series in Knoxville.
The next week, they stunned South Carolina in game three by hitting two grand slams in the ninth to sweep the Gamecocks. Then they went to Fayetteville and took two of three from the Razorbacks.
Yes, A&M was swept over the weekend in Austin. While that’s debilitating to their NCAA Tournament hopes, it was anything but a poor showing. They lost all three games by one run and had the tying run on base all three times.
My opinion is that Michael Earley was a panicked hire by A&M and that he’s over his head. His interviews are uninspiring, and his team has played miles below its potential. However, that doesn’t take that potential away. The Aggies have a ton of offensive talent and some veteran arms.
They need to win five of their final nine at a minimum, and three of those are against Missouri who is giving out wins like the families with the unattended candy baskets on the front porch on Halloween.
This weekend, one of these teams will be within striking distance of its goal. The other will have serious work to do the last two weeks.
FRIDAY NIGHT FIGHT
LSU is winning these games against SEC aces, but they aren’t doing much damage at all against those arms.
If you take the combined lines of Pico Kohn (MSU), Kyson Witherspoon (OU), Sam Dutton (AU) and Liam Doyle (Tenn), it’s not pretty for the purple and gold. Those four have worked 23.2 innings and allowed just four earned runs on 15 hits. LSU has struck out 25 times and walked six.
Those are aces. They don’t get hit a bunch for a reason. And last year in the College World Series, Ryan Prager of Texas A&M fit that bill. In Omaha, he hurled 10.2 innings of two-run ball with 10 strikeouts against Kentucky and Tennessee.
He was actually drafted by the Angels with the 81st pick in last summer’s draft and then left that agreement to return to Texas A&M.
He’s been shelled in SEC play.
Prager is a finesse pitcher by today’s standard. His fastball sits 88-90, and he has to locate his breaking ball and changeup to use the fastball effectively. That hasn’t worked this year. He’s given up four or more earned runs in five of his seven league starts, and the SEC is hitting .321 against him. That’s a quick way to sport a 6.23 ERA which Prager does.
LSU doesn’t have an excuse this week. Prager has given up 11 home runs in seven league starts. He’s given up hard contact all season. The Tiger offense should be able to break out of that Friday funk in this one.
BATTLE TO THE BULLPEN
These teams both have an arm they’re trying to get to late in games. If you’re reading this, you know that’s Zac Cowan for LSU. Casan Evans is next up. For Texas A&M, that’s Weston Moss. The big sophomore right-hander has become the closer for this Aggie team, and he’s excelled.
He’s made 10 conference appearances and has an ERA of just 2.42. In 26 innings, he’s yielded just seven earned runs while striking out 32 and walking seven. He went five innings at Arkansas to nail down a win. He threw six shutout frames at Kentucky.
If the Aggies get a middle inning lead, Moss will be the guy. Obviously, the same goes for Cowan with LSU.
Beyond Moss, A&M is a little thin. Kaiden Wilson is a talented left-hander who will get the ball at some point this weekend, but he’s a tick behind Moss.
BIG TIME BATS
There are future Major League players on both of these rosters. Jace Laviolette is likely a top five pick in this coming draft. Caden Sorrell might be a top five pick in next year’s draft. Those two have combined for 13 SEC homers in SEC play and hit from the left side. Kade Anderson, another future first rounder, has had trouble keeping left-handed bats in the ballpark. He needs to do so with those two guys.
On the LSU side, can Jared Jones keep it rolling? Derek Curiel is has reached in nine straight plate appearances. That’s almost impossible.
Bat-for-bat these two teams are on a pretty level playing field.
SATURDAY SPOTLIGHT
Prager and Anderson are the headliners for these rotations, but the showdown on Saturday is interesting as well. Both Justin Lamkin and Anthony Eyanson have been pretty good this year. Lamkin is another left hander, A&M will start three of those this this weekend, but his stuff is a tick up from Prager. His fastball creeps toward the mid 90s, and he’s got quality secondary stuff.
He was awesome at Texas last week, getting into the sixth and allowing just one earned run. Arkansas crushed him for seven earned on nine hits including a pair of homers two weeks ago. He shut South Carolina down the week before that.
Eyanson’s job is essentially to get LSU into the sixth with a good chance to win the game. He did that last week against Tennessee while Marcus Phillips completely silenced the LSU bats for six innings.
If Eyanson can get LSU to the sixth, Jay Johnson can deploy Cowan or Evans depending on availability. If things aren’t looking good, LSU then turns to the back half of the bullpen that hasn’t been nearly as effective. That’s where things went downhill last week. The offense has to do its part in this equation, too.
Meanwhile, the same thing applies to Texas A&M after Moss.
SERIES SCHEDULE
Friday: 6:00 ESPN+
Saturday: 3:00 ESPN+
Sunday: 1:00 ESPN+
