By Hunt Palmer
The NCAA Baseball Selection Show is less than three weeks away. It’s crunch time.
LSU had a golden opportunity to inch closer to a top eight national seed on Sunday but coughed up a late two-run lead in College Station to lose the series.
That leaves LSU in a good spot in regard to seeding, but it’s a precarious one. Both D1Baseball and Baseball America dubbed LSU a national seed this week, and that’s a positive. The potential negative is that the most dangerous team in the country may be headed to Baton Rouge this weekend.
While three games with Arkansas certainly provides an opportunity for a massive resume boost. At the same time, it presents some danger. Two or three losses this weekend, and the Tigers will be in a totally different spot.
That said, let’s look at LSU’s resume closely to see just how things stand.
STRONG METRICS
LSU is currently No. 8 in the RPI. As it stands right now, that’s strong enough. You don’t want to fall out of the top 10, and three games with RPI No. 4 Arkansas is unlikely to do that unless you lose all three. So, the RPI is good.
LSU is currently 15-9 in the SEC. That’s good enough for a tie for third in far-and-away the toughest league in the country. Finish third in the SEC, and you’re very likely a top eight.
LSU has 10 Quad 1 wins. While eight teams do have more than that, it’s still a very good number. The Tigers get three more cracks at that this weekend. Unfortunately, getting swept by Florida in Columbia dropped South Carolina out of the top 60, so those games will now be Quad 2 for LSU.
NEUTRAL METRICS
These neither help nor hurt LSU right now.
The Tigers’ strength of schedule is 30th in the country. That’s not a strong number like Auburn (2nd), Georgia (6th), Vanderbilt (3rd), and TCU (13th) boast, but it’s better than Oregon State (32nd), North Carolina (38th), Coastal Carolina (57th) and Tennessee (39th).
Playing Arkansas will boost LSU here. South Carolina won’t hurt comparatively speaking. It’s basically a wash.
And while LSU’s 10 Quad 1 wins are solid, the 10-9 record is just okay. I’m calling an LSU sweep pretty unlikely this weekend, so the Tigers will likely be hovering around .500 in Quad 1. That won’t hurt you. But it doesn’t help a ton because most of the teams jockeying for those eight spots are doing the same thing.
WEAK METRICS
Still, five SEC teams have a better RPI than LSU. The league occupies the top five spots in the RPI—Texas, Georgia, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt. If the committee pays attention to that, it could hurt. My contention is that it shouldn’t matter, but that remains to be seen.
LSU’s non-conference schedule was awful, and a non-conference strength of schedule of No. 209 is a bad look. Only Tennessee has a worse NCSOS in the Top 20 of the RPI. Again, I think the 30 league games that make up more than half the schedule should be a sufficient test, but that is a data point the committee can look to when splitting hairs. It won’t do LSU many favors.
The Missouri factor is still one to keep an eye on with Auburn and Vanderbilt. Getting to play the 0-30 team feels like a big advantage for LSU and therefore a detractor in the committee’s eyes.
Lastly, if LSU is in a conversation with Auburn, the purple and gold got swept on The Plains. Auburn is two games behind LSU in the SEC standings, which favors LSU, but Auburn has a tougher strength of schedule, better RPI and a sweep on its side of the ledger.
POTENTIAL TOP EIGHTS
I compiled a list of teams who I believe still have a chance to be top eight seeds. Some have a much, much clearer path than others, but I was trying to be open minded about it.
I think there are 13 teams with what I would call a legitimate case to push for a top eight over the last three weeks.
Texas and Arkansas are locks.
The next group is loaded with very high RPIs: Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Oregon State, Clemson and North Carolina.
That brings the total to 10.
Then you have RPI 13 Tennessee who has Vanderbilt at home this weekend and a trip to Arkansas coming. If they play like they’ve been playing, they won’t make it. But those are massive series that could vault them back in.
Then there’s the Big 12 champion. It will either be RPI 22 West Virginia which has a horrendous No. 121 strength of schedule and only three Quad 1 wins. Or RPI No. 14 TCU which has better metrics but is three games behind West Virginia with six to play. Arizona, Arizona State and Kansas could win the Big 12, but all of them have RPIs out side the Top 25 which is disqualifying.
I think both West Virginia and TCU are very much outside shots, but a major conference champion does have a shot.
Mathematically, you have to like LSU’s chances at nabbing one of eight spots for 13 teams, especially with Tennessee and the Big 12 champion low on oxygen at this point.
Still, it’s a matter of handling business. If the Tigers swing the bats this weekend like they did in College Station (READ: Poorly), then this discussion changes dramatically next week. Same thing goes if LSU goes out and wins the series.
The Tigers have still won five of eight league series and are looked upon favorably by the prognosticators. In a way, the finish line is very, very close. In a way, there’s a ton of baseball left.
Either way, it’s going to move quickly.
