By Hunt Palmer
Friday night felt like the last landmine for LSU.
A loss to a Texas A&M team with an RPI in the 50s could have sent LSU tumbling three spots like it did Auburn a day earlier. As of Saturday morning, LSU’s RPI is No. 9. Dropping to 12 or 13 would have felt a little shaky.
I believe Jay Johnson is connected well enough in college baseball that he had an idea of where LSU stood on Friday morning. He either threw Anthony Eyanson in relief to win a game LSU absolutely had to have, or he threw Eyanson because he knew the game didn’t matter much and wanted to get him work. At this point it doesn’t matter. LSU got the game, and Eyanson got work.
On to Saturday.
Ole Miss is an RPI 16, so Saturday’s game isn’t going to ding LSU much at a neutral site. The Tigers’ resume isn’t bulletproof, but what Friday night’s win did was take out the holes.
LSU resume looks like this as of Saturday morning:
- No. 9 RPI
- 43 wins, only Coastal Carolina, UTSA and Western Kentucky have more
- 13-10 vs. Quad 1
- 21-11 vs Quad’s 1 and 2
- 20 SEC wins, tied with Arkansas and Vanderbilt, both of which will be top eights
- 13-8 away from Alex Box
The weakest point of LSU’s position is “conference standing in the RPI”, and I believe we’re past that point.
Tennessee isn’t going to pass LSU for a top eight based on RPI. The Volunteers lost six of their last seven series including one in Baton Rouge. They’re not jumping LSU based on a week in Hoover.
Clemson has inched its way in front of LSU in the RPI. Those Tigers are No. 8, but they lost three of their last four ACC series of the regular season and finished fourth in the league. They’re also just 9-9 in Quad 1.
Oregon State will hang on to its three Quad 1 wins versus Hawaii who reached the Big West Tournament final, but I just don’t believe the Beavers’ resume stacks up with an LSU team that didn’t falter on Friday night. Oregon State is an RPI No. 6, but their strength of schedule is four spots behind LSU, and dropping all four games against Oregon is an absolute back breaker for the Beavers. Wins against Hawaii (No. 54), Xavier (No. 40) and Cal Poly (No. 37) just aren’t going to stack up with LSU’s series wins against Arkansas (No. 5), Tennessee (No. 10) and Alabama (No. 12).
Oregon’s RPI actually dipped with Thursday’s win over Nebraska. They’re now at No. 15. I love the Ducks’ 9-1 Quad 1 record and sweep of Oregon State, but it’s not enough right now to overtake LSU.
Florida State’s RPI is 13, and I think winning the ACC Tournament including a win over North Carolina on Saturday gives the ‘Noles a fighting chance at a top eight. Just not in front of LSU.
Coastal Carolina’s 4-5 record against Quad 1 is too much to overcome.
Every prognosticator is including six SEC teams in the top eight. That’s the way it should be. The league proves itself every year in Omaha. A team that wins seven of 10 SEC series and reaches the conference tournament semis with two total Quad 3 and 4 losses is not going to be left out at this point.
Here’s how I would seed it as of Saturday morning. It’s the same eight as Baseball America posted on Saturday.
- Texas
- Vanderbilt
- Arkansas
- LSU
- North Carolina
- Auburn
- Georgia
- Oregon
To me, the first seed and the eighth seed are the same. There isn’t a juggernaut out there to try to avoid. Just play games at home until you get to Omaha. LSU is going to do that.
Saturday’s game against Ole Miss should be a fun one. The Rebels are likely a top 16 seed, but they’re going to keep trying to improve their resume.
LSU is going to get a look at all of its bullpen arms in front of a big crowd which is exactly what Jay Johnson wants to get one more look at.
Now just get more than four hits.
