(Photo by Georgia Athletics)
By Chris Marler
The first step towards getting to Omaha will be taken this weekend. The 64 team NCAA Baseball Tournament begins Friday and will feature 13 SEC teams in the field. Here’s what to know and what to watch for all weekend long. ‘
Best Draw – LSU
There’s a reason LSU and Arkansas have the shortest odds to advance, nearly double that of any other SEC team. LSU sits at -425 to reach a Super Regional, and it’s not just because of their form. It’s also because of the draw. The Tigers are built for this format, and the teams in their path simply aren’t.
Dallas Baptist could be a tough out especially with an offense that mashed 97 home runs this season. The other two teams are Rhode Island and Arkansas-Little Rock who rank 48th and 64th in Baseball America’s regional rankings. UALR is the only team in the tournament with a losing record. Jay Johnson could put pre-broken arm Henry Roengardener out there and still win.
Best Draw for a Non-Host – Florida and Alabama
Alabama will head to Hattiesburg to face a team they’ve already beaten this season, and two of the worst run producing offenses in all of the regionals from Miami and Southern Miss. Both rank outside the top 100 in runs per game, and strikeout percentage, and a walk rate in the 200s nationally. Alabama is set up very well to advance if ace Riley Quick is on. They’re facing a Miami team that is limping into the postseason, losing six of their last seven.
Florida is the other team. The Gators are a 2 Seed in the Conway regional where 48 win Coastal Carolina will play host. However, Florida is the betting favorite at -115 not the Chanticleers (+110). They’ll face East Carolina in the opener who needed a prayer just to get in the tournament and are just 2-8 in Quad 1 Games this season. CCU does rank top 20 nationally in every major pitching category available including a top five finish in runs per game (3.6), WHIP (1.19), and ERA (3.29).
Worst Draw for Host – Ole Miss
The Rebels will open with Murray State who’s making their first tournament appearance in 22 years. However, the team they’ll face in the potential 1-0 matchup feels like a nightmare scenario. The No. 2 and No. 3 seeds were Georgia Tech and Western Kentucky, respectively. The Jackets were the ACC Champions in the regular season and many thought deserving of a regional hosting bid. They’re also playing in what is legendary head coach Danny Hall’s last year at the helm.
Then, there’s Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers won 46 games this season and rank 14th in the NCAA in hitting (.314 batting average) and third in the ERA (3.14). The Rebels have the lowest odds to win their regional of any host in the SEC. They’re even behind Florida’s betting line, despite the Gators being a 2 Seed and playing on the road.
Worst Draw for a Non-Host – Kentucky
Kentucky didn’t deserve a great draw or seed for that matter. It was a little surprising they were able to cling to one of the final spots in the tournament. The Wildcats are a year removed from reaching Omaha, but this season has been the polar opposite from 2024.
The Cats will head to Clemson to take on one of the best, and most consistent, teams in the country in Clemson. They’ll also open with 41 win West Virginia who had more road wins (23) than any other team in the country.
Kentucky’s pitching staff has been quietly one of the more underrated in the SEC all season. However, this specific matchup is a nightmare for Kentucky offensively. They rank 176th in home runs (52) and 181st in slugging percentage (.428). They’ll be facing two of the best strikeout and best command staffs in the country with Clemson and WVU both boasting K rates over 23%.
Best Pitching Matchups – Chapel Hill & Tallahassee
Chapel Hill will feature two of the best aces in college baseball. UNC Sr Jake Knapp who was 12-0 on the season with a 2.17 ERA. Hopefully we’ll get lucky enough to see him face Oklahoma’s Kyson Witherspoon who finished the regular season with a 10-3 record, a 2.47 ERA, and 120 strikeouts in just 91 innings.
In Tallahassee, you’ll get everything you want if you love good pitching. You’ll have elite starters, projected top five picks, and three complete staffs between FSU, Northeastern, and Mississippi State. State’s staff as a whole was tremendous all season. They’ll get Northeastern in game one and will face a staff that ranked 1st overall in runs per game, walk percentage, WHIP, and ERA.
Two lefties will steal most of the headlines on the weekend. FSU’s Jamie Arnold is a projected top ten pick in this year’s MLB Draft. Not to be outdone, Northeastern has a stud southpaw of their own. Will Jones is 6-foot-5, 220 pounds and finished second in the country this year in wins with an 11-0 record as well as ERA at 1.84.
Fireworks and the Long Ball – Athens
If you want offense and home runs head to Athens because Foley Field will see more people bomb this weekend than an open mic comedy night in Amish country. UGA and Duke both rank top 15 nationally in home runs this season with 133 and 99, respectively. Each team averaged over 8.4 runs per game.
However, the real reason you’ll see more runs scored here than probably any other regional is because as great as each team is offensively, they are just as bad on the mound. Duke doesn’t have a starter on the staff with more than 20 IP and an ERA less than 5.90. Georgia’s weekend starters not named Brian Curley finished the year with ERA’s of 5.08 and 7.66, and the staff allowed 69 home runs on the year, which was the third most in the SEC.
5 Picks for Player(s) of the Weekend/Regional MVPs
- UGA OF Robbie Burnett
- LSU 1B Jared Jones
- Vandy 1B Riley Nelson
- Bama Of Kade Snell
- Tenn OF Hunter Ensley
