By Chris Marler
Must Win? Maybe not. But here are 4 can’t lose games for the top four SEC CFP contenders.
LSU – September 27 at Ole Miss
The people of Baton Rouge would be very upset if the 2025 season got off to a sixth straight 0-1 start. However, losing on the road to what may very well be the best team in the country in Clemson is far more excusable than going to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and losing for a third consecutive time at Ole Miss.
This LSU team looks like it has every component needed to compete for a national title. Losing once in September doesn’t jeopardize that. Losing twice feels like it all but ends it. There would still be a path to Atlanta and subsequently the College Football Playoff. That path would include must-wins over South Carolina, Texas A&M, and of course, at Alabama.
Texas – November 28 vs Texas A&M
I don’t think Texas fans would have this on the list, but that’s more so because these two are in a perennial big brother versus little brother war of disrespect. Texas doesn’t have a single game in Austin until the regular season finalé. Texas’ schedule is a little bit more difficult than last season with yet another road trip against a defending national champion to start the year and then a late season trip to Athens to play Georgia in Week 13.
Let’s give a doomsday scenario and say that Texas unfathomably loses both those games. If that happens, then Texas A&M becomes a must-win game. That may not sound like a huge deal, but it’s more pressure than the Longhorns have faced in a regular season in the past several years.
Georgia – September 13 at Tennessee
This is one of the most intriguing games on the list for so many reasons. One, these two long standing former divisional rivals haven’t played this early in a season in decades. Two, Kirby Smart seems to be the only coach who hasn’t struggled with Josh Heupel’s high powered offense since it’s come to the SEC. And three, Tennessee may be the biggest wildcard of any team in the country, let alone the SEC.
Tennessee went to the playoffs a season ago, and for most of the Spring, were a team people expected to contend for a spot again this year. That seemed to dissipate the moment Nico Iamaleava tried to strong-arm the program for more NIL money. Here’s my very simple question in regards to that though – since when does a below 64 percent completion percentage QB with one touchdown all year against a ranked opponent deserve that level of impact?
Statistically speaking, Iamaleava and last year’s Volunteer offense was the worst of any first year quarterback under Heupel since Drew Locke’s sophomore season at Missouri. I don’t know if Joey Aguilar is good enough to win a national title, but he could very well be good enough for one day in September to beat Georgia in front of one of the toughest environments in college football. A loss on Rocky Top would leave games against Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home with Auburn and Georgia Tech on the road. That may not sound daunting for some UGA fans, but navigating that schedule with such little room for error is no cake walk.
Alabama – October 25 at South Carolina
This matchup comes at the end, or near the end, of a gauntlet for both teams. South Carolina will be on the road against LSU and home against Oklahoma prior to this game, and on the road at Ole Miss after it. Alabama will be coming off four weeks of UGA, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee before this game. The following week, they get a week off before their annual showdown with LSU.
We saw last year how unfocused Alabama was at times when it mattered most. Coming off a big rivalry game at home to Tennessee and then traveling to South Carolina for a team desperately trying to make the CFP seems like a potential recipe for disaster. Don’t forget that a season ago, South Carolina took Alabama down to the wire and lost by just two points in Bryant-Denny Stadium. That was their last regular season loss of the entire year.
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