Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
By Ross Jackson
The long standoff between the NFL and its second-round picks is finally starting to come to an end. However, New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough remains unsigned.
It’s not that much of a surprise looking at what’s happened ahead of him thus far.
Picks Nos. 33-35 all received guaranteed deals. Next up would be pick No. 37, running back Quinshon Judkins. However, he was recently arrested and faced domestic violence and battery charges. After that, Picks Nos. 37-39 also remain unsigned.
That means that jumping the gun with Shough at No. 40 would effectively result in negotiating the contracts of four other players and teams in the process. That’s something those teams might not take lightly too.
But the Saints should still do it anyway.
The fact of the matter is that at this point, the rate of decline between the last fully guaranteed deal, Pick No. 35 and Seattle Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori and pick No. 43, San Francisco 49ers defensive lineman Shemar Turner, is just 1.5%.
Emmanwori did get a fully GTD deal at No. 35.
Changes rate of decline to 1.5%.
Bumping pick No. 40 up to 92.5% were that to hold. That’s better than last year’s No. 34 overall pick who received 91.9% GTD. https://t.co/72XT29AsGG
— Ross Jackson (@RossJacksonNOLA) July 18, 2025
With that applied, subtracting 1.5% of guaranteed money for each selection between Emmanwori and Shough, the Saints’ passer would be sitting with about 92.5% of his deal promised. That’s more than what last year’s No. 34 overall selection received (91.9%).
At this point, New Orleans may as well go ahead and guarantee the entire deal. The idea of drafting him was to give him a chance to become the team’s franchise quarterback anyway. A difference of about a million dollars shouldn’t be a barrier in that case. Shough’s status as a quarterback and a potential starter for the team justifies a specific and unique approach than those that await ahead of him on the draft board.
The worst-case scenario is that the Saints have a backup quarterback on a guaranteed rookie deal going into 2026 if things don’t pan out this year and the team decides to go back to the quarterback well next offseason, or second-year competitor Spencer Rattler wins out and holds on to the gig himself.
Last year’s No. 40 overall selection, Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Cooper DeJean’s contract was worth a grand total of just $9,283,622. This year’s deal will be an increase from that, but not by a starling amount.
Guaranteeing between nine and 10 million dollars for a starting quarterback that, at worst, is a multi-year backup isn’t the worst way to approach this situation. Especially if that’s what it takes to make sure that Shough is signed and ready to hit the field on Wednesday, July 23 as camp officially gets under way.
