MARLER: LSU, South Carolina underrated in preseason outlook

By Chris Marler

I’m tapped out on Texas talk, y’all. I can only handle so many conversations about the Longhorns and Arch Manning this offseason. 

I love Steve Sarkisian, and am a firm believer in his offenses no matter who is at the helm. Still, it strikes me as odd that a team that lost 12 NFL Draft picks this year (and 23 over the last two seasons), a former No. 1 overall recruit at quarterback, and eight offensive starters, including four of five offensive linemen, is expected to roll into the season without missing a step.

I’m not saying Texas won’t be great. I also think it’s fair to most of the national media are looking at Texas through a different lens than other teams in the SEC. And, not just afterthought teams. I mean contenders. 

Forget the success that Texas came in and had in year one. How about the optics and optimism they’ve somehow “earned” after just one season in the conference?

Arch Manning could be generational. But, let’s not forget that the last No. 1 overall quarterback recruit Texas signed was Quinn Ewers. While Ewers had a productive college career, he never won a national title, something Arch is almost expected to accomplish, nor did he win a Heisman or even receive an invite to New York, where Arch is currently considered the favorite. Ultimately, Ewers was selected in the seventh round of the draft.

So if we are going to give that track record the benefit of the doubt, there are several other coaches and programs in this conference that deserve the same.

South Carolina and Shane Beamer 

The case against South Carolina: schedule and replacing the middle of the defense. 

The biggest concern most seem to have with this year’s South Carolina team is the schedule and that they lost so much production defensively. True. 

The schedule is the schedule. I heard the same thing last year about the schedule and the final six games of the season when they had four ranked opponents on the docket and road trips to Norman and Clemson. They won all six. 

Then, there’s the defense. They lost five players to the NFL Draft, all of which were on the defensive side of the ball. They lost two interior defensive lineman, all three linebackers and the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. 

That’s a lot of experience and production to replace.

However, the case for South Carolina is simple. If you’re in the camp that they won’t be able to replace the talent and experience in the middle/front seven of the defense, fine. But, ask yourself if you knew who any of those players were a year ago when they started. I don’t remember the national media being super high on Tonka Hemingway and TJ Sanders. I definitely don’t remember Kyle Kennard getting some crazy amount of national love on awards and watch lists. And you’re lying if you’re telling me that you knew Demetrius Knight Jr. was going to be a top 50 pick in the draft, considering he was working as an Uber Eats driver while at Charlotte before he transferred.

 Shane Beamer hasn’t missed much in the portal. We fawned over Kirby Smart or Nick Saban’s ability to see diamonds in the rough, and when they sign a three-star the usual response is “they must have seen something we didn’t.” I’m not saying that’s how we should view Shane Beamer, but just so we are clear, all three of the top 50 NFL Draft picks that came from South Carolina last season were former three-star recruits. 

Apparently he and his staff are pretty good at this whole identifying, evaluation and developing overlooked talent. 

Making the case for LSU 

It’s not like LSU has been overlooked and dismissed by the national media and preseason prognosticators. They’ve been consistently ranked in the top ten and many have predicted them to make the playoff. However, the lens that we look at LSU through is also not the same that we have for other top-tier contenders. 

For many SEC contenders this season, the biggest uncertainty lies in breaking in a first-year starting quarterback. Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss all lost multiyear starters and/or NFL Draft picks at quarterback. LSU brings back arguably the most productive quarterback in America behind center and a player who’s currently projected as a top five to ten pick in next year’s NFL Draft. That’s one. 

The other issue with LSU is that, like an angry ex, the national media is judging them on the sins of their past. That’s especially the case at the coordinator positions. 

It’s fair to say that both sides of the ball underachieved last season. It also happened to be in a season where LSU was breaking in a new hire at both coordinator positions. Both Joe Sloan and Blake Baker struggled in their initial season as play callers and coordinators in Baton Rouge. 

Sloan failed to establish a more balanced attack with the run game falling behind the focus on the passing game and 59% of their playcalls being through the air. That was the highest in over a decade for LSU. 

Baker’s defenses failed to be consistent throughout the year, put teams away when they had a lead and, more than anything, could not figure out how to stop a running quarterback. 

All those things were very real, objective issues in year one. Time and time again the biggest jump we see in a program under a new regime comes from year one to year two. At Louisiana Tech under Sloan, the offense improved across every major category from 2020 to 2021, most notably boosting its yards per play by a full yard, from 4.49 to 5.58, and climbing 42 spots nationally in the process.

Similarly, when Baker was at Missouri, the 2021 defense before he arrived ranked in the bottom three of the SEC in almost every major defensive category and ranked 100th or worse nationally in scoring defense (33.8 ppg), total defense (434.7 ypg), rushing defense (227.9 ypg), yards per play (6.38) and 3rd Down defense (44%). Baker’s 2022 unit allowed 8 less ppg (25.2 ppg) and over a yard less per play (5.28 (ypp), and allowed a whopping 100 yards less in rushing and total defense. 

That’s a track record I can believe in. And, the best news for Sloan and Baker is that the talent they have on this roster at LSU is miles better than what they had at their previous stops.