By Hunt Palmer
LSU scrimmaged under the lights in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night.
That was the final step in “Fall Camp.” Now, the Tigers begin prep for Clemson with a recovery day on Sunday and a week of work before school starts. Brian Kelly has managed the Louisiana heat and team’s workload meticulously which has resulted in a healthy camp that has included a lot of work.
The media has been granted plenty of preseason access, and the narratives surrounding the program are generally unanimous.
The skill positions on offense are explosive. The defensive front is as good as it’s been in five years. The secondary is deep and keeping up with the offense, and the Weeks-Perkins linebacker crew is healthy and playing great.
Kelly praised his offensive line on Friday. If that praise sticks, LSU is in business. The schedule is very difficult, but that’s just life in the SEC when you schedule a Top 10 team on the road to open the season.
Here’s my projection for the season.
at Clemson
It’s really difficult for me to project LSU to score a lot of points here. Both Jayden Daniels offenses scuffled in the opener, and LSU scored 20 last year against a mediocre USC defense.
The difference this year is that I think LSU can and will lean on its own defense. I think Blake Baker’s unit plays excellent football, and LSU hits a couple of big plays without a consistent running game.
17-16 LSU
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie’s program has struggled. Tech is 13-29 under his leadership. This won’t be pretty. It will be a chance to get some meaningful reps to players like Harlem Berry, Carius Curne, Charles Ross and Dashawn Spears.
48-10 LSU
Florida
The Gators will come to Baton Rouge 2-0 with a pair of easy non-conference wins.
DJ Lagway beat LSU on one leg last year in a game that LSU completely controlled statistically. This game will be played a little bit more crisply on offense than the opener, but LSU’s talent level and the Tiger Stadium crowd will take over late.
28-21 LSU
Southeastern Louisiana
At 3-0, LSU will be a consensus Top 5 team, and the town will be buzzing like it hasn’t in some time.
Southeastern probably shouldn’t even be on the schedule, but the Lions do present a chance for LSU to get some younger players on the field. The meat of the SEC schedule awaits, so this will be a nice breather.
51-7 LSU
at Ole Miss
Next up, a trip to The Grove. Ole Miss returns just four starters, and this Rebel foray into the transfer portal wasn’t as heavy on star power.
Last year, Ole Miss finished third in the country in sacks and third in the conference in total defense. Both of those are going to regress a little bit. With time, Garrett Nussmeier should be able to do some work on the Ole Miss secondary. The Rebel wideouts won’t have Tre Harris, but it will be a deeper corps. I think LSU outscores the Rebels in Oxford.
35-31 LSU
South Carolina
After an open date, LSU hosts South Carolina in what will be a raucous Tiger Stadium. The Tigers haven’t been 5-0 since 2019. I have South Carolina potentially unbeaten here as well, though a trip to Missouri isn’t a sure win.
Baker’s defense simply couldn’t stop running quarterbacks last season. LaNorris Sellers might be the best running quarterback in the country. LSU’s defensive front is deeper and stronger than last year, and more importantly, the safeties are massive upgrades. That will bottle up the huge plays. The Gamecock front seven won’t be nearly as good this year. I like LSU to handle business here.
31-17 LSU
at Vanderbilt
This is a bit of a hangover spot. Vanderbilt has finished the upgrades to their stadium which makes it look more like a MAC stadium than a high school multi-purpose facility. That’s a start, but it’s still nowhere near the other atmospheres in the SEC. And the Commodores will play hard. I just don’t think they have much talent at all. Diego Pavia might strike for an early score, but LSU offense will get rolling.
38-20 LSU
Texas A&M
I like this Texas A&M team. The offense line should be really stout, and Le’Veon Moss is an excellent back. Reuben Owens and Amari Daniels add great depth there. Those three with Marcel Reed form a formidable backfield.
The Aggies will be able to run the ball. Elko’s defense returns its entire secondary and has talent up front. This will be a brutal battle at the line of scrimmage, and I think the defenses win it. So does LSU.
21-18 LSU
at Alabama
We’ve been here before. LSU went to Tuscaloosa unbeaten in 2011, 2015 and 2019. It always creates one of the best environments in college football.
By this point, Kalen DeBoer will have his quarterback figured out. Is Ty Simpson able to pilot the offense, or has Keelon Russell, the five-star, won the job? Either way, Alabama has a load of NFL talent on that roster. Ryan Williams is tough to deal with, and the defensive front led by Tim Keenan should be good. I favor the Tide slightly here.
28-24 Alabama
Arkansas
Even if that first loss stings, Arkansas doesn’t have the talent to make it hurt in a hangover spot. Taylen Green can’t do it on his own, and the Arkansas defense might be the worst in the SEC. LSU goes up and down the field and still has all its goals in sight.
41-14 LSU
Western Kentucky
It’s Senior Night in Tiger Stadium. Hopefully Western Kentucky brings that goofy looking mascot that looks like DOTS Halloween candy. Nussmeier leaves to standing ovation. LSU leaves the field as a national championship hopeful.
45-13 LSU
at Oklahoma
The ceiling and floor for Oklahoma are miles apart. I tend to think Brent Venables’s defense will play very well, even without Danny Stutsman. The offense is the question. Can John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle fix it all?
I can absolutely see a situation where Venables is no longer on the sidelines in Norman for this game. I can also see an Oklahoma team that is scrappy and wins a game they aren’t supposed to at home, like this one perhaps in a very cold environment. All it takes is a couple of stalled LSU drives and a turnover or two.
24-20 Oklahoma
Final Thoughts
That puts LSU at 10-2, 6-2 with wins over Clemson, Florida, Texas A&M and South Carolina. That resume very likely leaves LSU out of the SEC Championship but very much in the College Football Playoff. That 10-2 record JUST left Tennessee out of the hosting picture for the first round last season. It could go either way.
The bottom line is that I really like this LSU defense, and maybe Kelly is onto something with the offensive line. Even with a middling offensive line, LSU will still find a way to be very explosive on offense. The way my hypothetical plays out, Tiger Stadium should be a ton of fun this fall, and the stakes should be very high for the first time in some time.
The real key is getting off to a good start Labor Day Weekend.
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