Statistically Speaking: Saints vs. 49ers

Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

By Ross Jackson

Following the New Orleans Saints’ opening week loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the team left feeling positive about their performance. They’ll now get a chance to try to build some momentum against a banged up San Francisco 49ers team in Week 2.

To preview the matchup, here’s a look at where each team ranks in some of the NFL’s major statistics and how they might be impacted following a growing list of Week 1 injuries from both teams.

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense

Saints Offense – No. 24 | 49ers Defense – No. 6

While the Saints offense was just one catch and one field goal away from scoring 23 points against the Arizona Cardinals last week, neither went their way. Instead, New Orleans walked away scoring just 13 points to open the year. San Francisco, in the meanwhile, allowed just 13 points to the Seattle Seahawks.

49ers Offense – No. 20 | Saints Defense – No. 14

Surrendering just 20 points in a loss turned out well for New Orleans in comparison to the rest of the league as 19 different teams scored 20 or more points with 11 scoring 24 or more. San Francisco was not one of those teams, needing just 17 points to get its Week 1 victory.

Point Differential

Saints – minus-7 (No. 26) | 49ers – plus-4 (No. 10)

With only one game in the books, this is just an early going. But with one team having won last week and the other having lost, this looks about as one would expect.

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards)

Saints Offense – No. 14 | 49ers Defense – No. 8

The Saints’ offense threw for 208 team passing yards last week. But did so while quarterback Spencer Rattler launched 46 passing attempts. The Saints’ 3.8 yards per pass was third-lowest in the NFL in Week 1. If the Saints are going to remain pass-heavy (even if not at a 46 pass per game clip), then dialing up more explosive and chunk plays will be necessary for success.

49ers Offense – No. 7 | Saints Defense – No. 3

This will be an interesting area of this game to watch. New Orleans allowed just 130 team passing yards last week, a good showing giving up a lone explosive play. But the 49ers were much more efficient on offense than Arizona was. However, injuries can play a big role in this phase.

The 49ers will be without tight end George Kittle, who suffered a hamstring injury during the first half of last week’s game. In addition, they could be without quarterback Brock Purdy as well as wide receiver Jauan Johnson. Both are dealing with injuries and could be held out of this game.

The Saints’ defense has also lost safety Julian Blackmon for an extended period, possibly the season, due to a significant shoulder injury that is expected to be a torn labrum. That could spring rookie safety Jonas Sanker into action with fellow safety Jordan Howden limited in practice and sidelined for the game last week with an oblique injury.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards)

Saints Offense – No. 16 | 49ers Defense – No. 13

The Saints’ rushing attack started strong with running backs averaging 6.7 yards per carry in the first half, but falling well short of that in the second half. Head coach Kellen Moore said in his postgame media availability that the team got away from the run game in the third and fourth quarters because of a lack of efficiency. The running backs averaged just 1.36 yards per carry during that time.

The 49ers defense allowed just 84 yards rushing to the Seahawks, who were hyped as one of the best rushing teams in the league with former Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak calling the plays in Seattle. Instead, San Francisco held the team to 3.2 yards per rush. The Saints averaged 4.9 in their run game. This may be a battle of strength on strength, but also a battle of longevity. If the Saints get away from their run game again, first half efficiency won’t help them much.

49ers Offense – No. 10 | Saints Defense – No. 25

On the defensive side, the Saints showed progress in stopping the run, however one 52 yard explosive play by Cardinals running back Trey Benson changed everything. Had the initial defender in position to make the stop on that run been able to make the tackle, the play would have resulted in a loss of yards. The Saints will have to make sure, against 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey that they make plays upon initial contact rather than allowing a much more dynamic rusher in San Francisco a chance to catch the edge.

Turnover Differential

Saints – 0 (T-No. 10) | 49ers – 0 (No. 10)

Neither team forced nor committed a turnover in their season opener. This is another area where Blackmon’s absence may be felt for New Orleans. He had the greatest potential on defense to create takeaways. New Orleans will have to find that potential, better yet production, elsewhere.

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 35.7% (No. 23) | 49ers Defense – 30.0% (No. 7)

The Saints converted just five of their 14 third down opportunities and averaged a yards-to-go distance of just under seven yards. New Orleans has continued a worrisome trend from last year, facing third and long on average. The San Francisco defense did a good job keeping Seattle in similar situations and cashing in by getting off the field.

49ers Offense – 50% (No. 8) | Saints Defense – 46.2% (No. 18)

Another worrisome trend that continued for New Orleans was its struggles in defending third downs. The Saints allowed a 40% or better third down conversion rate last season in 10 different games. The team went 1-9 in those matchups. While the team did well to defend the pass overall, three third and longs of 10, 11 and 12 yards were converted through the air.

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 28.6% (T-No. 12) | 49ers Defense – 32.0% (No. 17)

Even though the Saints totaled five sacks in their season opener, the defense didn’t generate pressure at as high a rate as one would expect. The Saints dialed up more blitzed than they did on average last year, but didn’t necessarily see the spoils of consistent pressure.