Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
By Hunt Palmer
Billy Napier and Brian Kelly will stride to midfield Saturday night with zeros on the scoreboard.
When they shake hands, things could look and feel a lot differently.
Four years ago, both men left comfortable jobs for a new challenge. Napier left Louisiana-Lafayette on Nov. 28, 2021, to become the head man at Florida. Kelly stunned the college football world two days later when he departed Notre Dame, where he was the programs winningest head coach, for LSU.
Hiring cycles welcome comparisons.
Florida and LSU have enjoyed as many 21st century highs as anyone outside of Tuscaloosa. The Gators won national titles in 2006 and 2008. The 2009 team entered December 12-0. Since Urban Meyer’s abrupt exit, that type of success has eluded the folks in Gainesville. LSU has hoisted the ultimate hardware three times since 2003. Les Miles and Ed Orgeron were fired thereafter because of a lack of consistency.
Napier and Kelly were brought into these jobs to win at the highest level and sustain it. They’re linked in that way.
Fast forward four years, and Kelly’s 2022 SEC Western Division title is all the two have to show, and that was a part of a four-loss season.
Kelly’s 17-7 SEC record is solid. He’s 21-2 in Tiger Stadium. Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy, and Kelly’s program has helped develop 13 NFL Draft picks over the last two years, including the first four-man offensive line class in school history.
The problem with leaving Notre Dame on the College Football Playoff’s front porch for the pastures of LSU is that Heismans and division titles and draft numbers don’t matter. It’s all about championships, and LSU hasn’t sniffed one since 2019.
Florida had something special cooking in December of 2020 when Kyle Trask was leading the country in passing and the Gators were 8-1 with a spot in the SEC Championship Game secured as 3-5 LSU limped into The Swamp. Thanks to a thick fog and a thrown shoe, LSU won that game to start a three-game Gator spiral that all but cost Dan Mullen his job. Less than 12 full months later, Napier was in place to restore Florida to prominence.
It hasn’t happened. Not even close.
Napier is 20-20 in Orange and Blue with a 10-14 SEC record. Just when it appeared the ship had been righted by five-star phenom DJ Lagway and a five-game winning streak to end 2024, Napier’s Gators stumbled through a home loss to South Florida last week that fired up the heat on his seat to skyrocketing temperatures.
And now Kelly and Napier meet again.
Should Napier’s team become the first Florida team to win in Tiger Stadium since 2016, the angry mobs in Gainesville will calm momentarily. Meanwhile, the groans will be loud in Baton Rouge.
If Kelly were to move to 4-0 for the first time in Baton Rouge with a top five ranking and some newfound early-season momentum, LSU will have the appearance of a program ready to take the next step toward the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, Napier will return to the Sunshine State with a dark cloud in tow. A 2-2 start with road trips to Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss to come, in addition to games with Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Florida State spells doom. It’s the most difficult schedule in college football, and one miracle November doesn’t forecast another.
In short, Saturday could be a jumping off point for Kelly’s program and harbinger for the end of Napier’s.
The two coaches are lightly tied together because they took the reins of power programs within a week of each other. Napier wanted the LSU job but never got a phone call. He took the gig at Florida and has assembled staffs with deep Louisiana roots in Rob Sale (former LSU OL), Jabbar Jaluke (New Orleans native), Corey Raymond (former LSU DB), Russ Calloway (former LSU asst) and Ron Roberts (former Southeastern head coach).
If things get ugly for Florida on Saturday night, Napier’s first taste of the big time might turn permanently sour just 60 miles from where he cut his teeth winning Sun Belt titles as a Ragin Cajun.
It’s just one game of the 12 of the schedule, but it feels bigger.
A loss for LSU makes the path to the playoff even more treacherous. A loss for Florida means a high wire act just to keep the program in the same hands.
Four years in for Kelly and Napier, a massive four hours await Saturday night in Death Valley.
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