Statistically Speaking: Saints at Seahawks

By Ross Jackson

After starting 0-2 on the season, the New Orleans Saints are still in search of their first win going into Week 3. If they are to get it, they’ll have to do so on the road in a tough environment against the Seattle Seahawks. This will be the first regular season road trip for the new-look team, who want to get on the correct side of the win-loss column.

Here are how the Saints and Seahawks measure up to one another across several major statistical categories:

Scoring Offense vs. Scoring Defense

Saints Offense – No. 26 | Seahawks Defense – No. 7

For the second consecutive week, the Saints will face a top-10 scoring defense. New Orleans found ways to put points on the board, even with some missed opportunities against the San Francisco 49ers last week. Doing so in Seattle will be imperative, facing not only the Seahawks’ defense, but a very strong home field advantage

Seahawks Offense – No. 16 | Saints Defense – No. 17

The opposite side of the equation looks evenly matched on paper. But last week’s performance against an injury-riddled 49ers team that still put up 26 points on the Saints’ defense left a lot to be desired in reality. When Seattle’s offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has an offense going, it can score in a hurry. The Saints know that all-too-well, but they’ll have to hope they can limit Seattle, who is coming off of a 31-point outburst against a formidable Pittsburgh Steelers defense. 

Point Differential

Saints – minus-12 (No. 23) | Seahawks – plus-10 (No. 11)

One team has a win while the other is 0-2. The records are reflected in the differentials early this season. The Saints showed a greater propensity to score with 21 points last week that could have quickly been 28 or 24 had their first drive’s missed opportunities not taken early points off the board. Seattle outscored Pittsburgh 31-17 last week. 

Passing Offense vs. Passing Defense (Yards)

Saints Offense – No. 22 | Seahawks Defense – No. 21

New Orleans hasn’t put up a lot of passing yards relative to the rest of the league, despite ranking No. 4 in passing attempts. The Saints are playing a condensed style of offense early on in the season, but found moments to take some shots and generate some bigger plays last week. The team will look to keep that trend going in the Pacific Northwest.

Seahawks Offense – No. 16 | Saints Defense – No. 13

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 295 yards against the Steelers, but only 150 against the 49ers, the same defense that Saints’ quarterback Spencer Rattler moved the ball efficiently against. Meanwhile the Saints’ defense ran hot and cold in defending the pass in the last two weeks. So this may end up being one of the most important factors in Sunday’s game. How Darnold performs and what the Saints do to dictate that.

Rushing Offense vs. Rushing Defense (Yards)

Saints Offense – No. 12 | Seahawks Defense – No. 19

The ground game has been a focus for New Orleans, as expected, early in the season. Last week, head coach Kellen Moore said that lessons from the season opener pushed him to stay more committed to the run late and emphasize “mixed-down football” instead of relying too heavily on passing downs. Keeping that play calling diversity going in Seattle could keep the team from getting one-dimensional too early if the defense can keep the score close and if the offense provides some scoring themselves.

Seahawks Offense – No. 11 | Saints Defense – No. 17

The run game in Seattle isn’t quite as strong as projected in the offseason, but it’s still nearly top-10 with room to reach its ceiling. Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense has been susceptible to some big plays on the ground. The team’s 63.8% defensive success rate against the run is No. 8 across the league, showing that it gets stops and holds up in the area well overall. However, some explosive moments here and there can dictate everything. See Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals as an example.

Turnover Differential

Saints – 0 (T-No. 16) | Seahawks – 0 (No. 16)

Each team has committed the same number of takeaways and giveaways and are tied among the literal middle of the league. Doesn’t get much more early-season rankings than that.

Third Down Conversion Rate

Saints Offense – 36% (No. 23) | Seahawks Defense – 41.4% (No. 18)

New Orleans will be looking to improve situational football on both sides this week and may be facing a favorable matchup for its offense. While both of the Saints’ previous opponents are within the top-11 teams in third down defense, Seattle allows a fairly high rate. They uniquely struggle against the run on third down, giving up a 55.6% rate in that area. New Orleans will have to do well on first and second downs in order to put itself in position to take advantage of that, however. 

Seahawks Offense – 37.5% (No. 22) | Saints Defense – 50% (No. 29)

Moore has spoken openly about the team’s need to improve here. The Saints are one of four teams to allow 50% or more of the third downs they face to be converted. This is a big concern that must be addressed over the practice week in order to show improvement in Week 3.

Pressure Rate Allowed vs. Generated

Saints Offense – 34.5% (No. 13) | Seahawks Defense – 39.7% (No. 12)

Despite having one of the league’s lowest blitz percentages (11.5%), the Seahawks find lots of ways to generate pressure. The team has a lot of talent along its front-four, and leans in on it quite a bit. If the Saints can handle the Seattle defensive line, it could go a long way in extending the progress shown by Rattler. Look for the Seahawks to run stunts, twists and other games on the offensive line specifically designed to stress the Saints’ interior, which could be getting left guard Trevor Penning back this week, though Dillon Radunz has performed well. 

Seahawks Offense – 40.7% (No. 27) | Saints Defense – 22.2% (No. 30)

New Orleans may be No. 2 in the league in sacks, but the defense has not consistently generated pressure. The Saints have a top-five sack percentage as well. Getting to and impacting Darnold will need to be a core focus in this one. New Orleans doesn’t blitz much either, but could be getting some help this week should defensive end Chase Young return to the field after missing the first two weeks.