Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
By Hunt Palmer
Ole Miss and LSU renew their rivalry on Saturday afternoon in Oxford.
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are unbeaten at 4-0 with a pair of conference wins over Arkansas and Kentucky. Expectations have been turned down this season after last year’s loaded roster face planted to a three-loss season that included an inexplicable loss to a pathetic Kentucky team.
Kiffin and co. have moved on without the services of Jaxson Dart, Tre Harris, Walter Nolan, Trey Amos and a host of players that have moved on to the professional ranks. Once again, Kiffin leaned hard on the transfer portal. The names weren’t as headline-grabbing, but it’s another good roster.
There’s a little bit of controversy brewing at quarterback as starter Austin Simmons returns from injury and transfer Trinidad Chambliss continues to pile up points. LSU will have to be ready for both.
Let’s take a look at Ole Miss by the numbers.
A reminder that the smaller the ranking, the better the statistic.
Green: Top 25
Red: Bottom 50
OFFENSE
Scoring Offense: 12th, 44.8 points per game
Total Offense: 9th, 543.3 yards per game
Yards per play: 14th, 7.4 yards per play
Plays per game: 14th, 73 per game
Rushing Offense: 25th, 218.5 yards per game
Yards per carry: 41st, 5.0 yards per carry
Rushing Attempts per game: 14th, 43.5 per game
Rushing Touchdowns: 11th, 13
Passing Offense: 14th, 324.3 yards per game
Completion Percentage: 63rd, 64.4%
Passing Touchdowns: 33rd, 8
Interceptions Throw: 109th, 4
Third Down Conversions: 18th, 53%
Fourth Down Conversion attempts: 127th, 2
Red Zone Touchdown Percentage: 55th, 68%
20-plus yard plays: 1st, 32
10-plus yard runs: 38th, 23
20-plus yard passes: 1st, 25
First Downs: 18th, 25.5 per game
Sacks Allowed: 35th, 4
Tackles For Loss Allowed: 67th, 19
Time of Possession: 111th, 27:40 per game
You could probably take one look at these statistics and tell it’s a Lane Kiffin team. The fact that they’ve only attempted two fourth down conversions would throw you off. I don’t know the reason for that. Ole Miss has been in the Top 25 in attempts every year of the Kiffin era, and they’re nearly last this year. Outside of that, it’s Kiffin to a T.
The Rebels are Top 25 in almost all the productivity stats. They lean heavily on a strong running game and create as many explosive plays as anyone in college football. This version of the Rebels leads the country in 20-plus yard passing plays.
Red Zone touchdowns have been a little bit of an issue, and Kiffin does not care at all about time of possession. That’s born out in the numbers.
Whether Simmons or Chambliss takes the snaps, the identity of the Rebel offense remains the same. Run the ball. Move quickly. Take shots. Roll up points.
This will be the toughest test for this Tiger defense to date.
DEFENSE
Scoring Defense: 42nd, 18.8 points per game
Total Defense: 72nd, 356 yards per game
Run Defense: 122nd, 190 yards per game
Yards per Carry Allowed: 121st, 5.2 yards per carry
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed: 82nd, 6
Passing Defense: 25th, 166 yards per game
Completion Percentage Allowed: 3rd, 49%
Yards per Passing Attempt Allowed: 23rd, 5.5 yards per attempt
Interceptions: 82nd, 2
Passing Touchdowns Allowed: 24th, 3
Sacks: 115th, 4
Tackles for Loss: 112th, 16
Third Down Defense: 74th, 37.9% conversions
Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed: 36th, 50%
20-plus yard plays: 71st, 15
10-plus yard runs: 116th, 23
20-plus yard passes: 50th, 9
This does not resemble Ole Miss’s 2024 defense at all. That unit annihilated teams at the line of scrimmage and racked up sacks and tackles for loss. This group does not. And the Rebels have been absolutely gashed on the ground. Big plays have been a huge problem.
They have done a very good job in coverage, allowing a microscopic completion percentage, but that’s really the only strength statistically.
This is strength on strength and weakness on weakness. LSU wants to throw the football efficiently. Ole Miss defends that well. Ole Miss struggles mightily in run defense, and LSU has not gotten a ground game going yet.
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