Lane Kiffin’s offenses shine, but can he ever win big?

By Matt Moscona

Lane Kiffin is an elite offensive coach. That is objectively true.

His Ole Miss teams have never ranked lower than 29th nationally in total offense. In 2024, the Rebels were third. Everywhere Kiffin has coached, offense has followed.

Lane Kiffin is not a championship-caliber head coach. That also is objectively true. Aside from two Conference USA titles at Florida Atlantic, his teams have never played for a conference title. In 11 combined seasons at Tennessee, USC and Ole Miss, Kiffin’s teams have never finished with fewer than two conference losses.

Kiffin has won a lot of games. He’s 109-52 (67%) as a head coach. He just hasn’t won enough big games.

As the old adage goes, “Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships.”

Kiffin’s 2024 Rebels were the most talented roster in program history, with a program record eight NFL Draft selections. Led by fifth-year senior quarterback Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss finished third in total offense and third in scoring with 38.6 points per game. They lost three games, two as a double-digit favorite.

Those high-flying Rebels scored 76 on Furman and 52 on Middle Tennessee. And then Kentucky put them in a pretzel, beating Ole Miss 20-17 for the Wildcats’ only SEC win of the year. Sixty-three points at Arkansas was impressive. Losing 24-17 as a double-digit favorite at Florida was not.

Of course, there was the classic LSU game, where the Tigers never led until the walk-off score in overtime.

In 2021, the Rebels scored 43, 54 and 61 to open the season 3-0. Then came a trip to Alabama where the quotable coach encouraged viewers during a pregame interview to “get your popcorn ready.” Alabama won 42-21.

LSU beat the 7-0 Rebels 45-20 in 2022. After averaging 53 points through their first three games in 2023, the Rebels were washed away again by the Tide, 24-10.

The 2025 season is taking similar shape for Kiffin’s squad. The Rebels are averaging 44.8 points per game with blowout wins over some of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas boasts the best pass defense Ole Miss has faced, ranked 74th. Kentucky (123rd), Georgia State (120th) and Tulane (105th) didn’t put up much of a fight.

Saturday presents a different challenge and another opportunity for Kiffin to prove he’s ready to take the next step toward being a championship coach. LSU is 17th in total defense and ninth in scoring, allowing nine points per game. The Rebels will be starting a Division II transfer under center against arguably the best defense in the country.

A big offensive day could be a breakthrough for Ole Miss on the path to the College Football Playoff. A loss would be another chapter in a growing narrative about one of the best offensive coaches in the country who just can’t get over the hump.