Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
By Hunt Palmer
September is in the rearview for LSU.
The Tigers finally got off to the strong start that has evaded Brian Kelly for his four seasons in Baton Rouge. A win at Clemson and an SEC-opening victory over Florida gave LSU a little bit of wiggle room as far as an at-large playoff berth was concerned.
Some of that room vanished on Saturday when Ole Miss dealt LSU its first loss of 2025.
Conventional thought is that one more loss won’t sink LSU. The third of the season makes things far dicier. That means LSU needs to go 5-1 in the final six SEC games with a November win over Western Kentucky.
Here are my thoughts on those six games, easiest to hardest:
1. Arkansas
Athletic Director Hunter Yurachek finally moved on from Sam Pittman over the weekend. It was probably a year and a half late, but it’s done. The Hogs lost to Memphis two weeks ago and were embarrassed by Notre Dame in Fayetteville.
Offensive coordinator turned interim head coach Bobby Petrino fired much of the defensive staff that has produced the No. 118 total defense in the country and the No. 113 scoring defense in the country. Those numbers are even more jarring when you realize the Hogs gave up seven points in the opener to Alabama A&M and 14 in week two to Arkansas State. Over the last three games, Arkansas has allowed 1,605 yards and 129 points.
Quarterback Taylen Green still leads the nation in total offense, so LSU will still have to keep up with that to some extent, but in Tiger Stadium that should be quite doable.
2. South Carolina
This one is up next on the schedule. Both teams have a bye week Saturday. The Gamecocks got drilled 31-7 by Vanderbilt in a game that LaNorris Sellers left with a concussion. Missouri outlasted Shane Beamer’s team, 29-20, a week later. Kentucky was a ‘get right’ spot for the Gamecocks, and they did it, winning 35-13.
Still, South Carolina ranks dead last in the SEC in total offense and ahead of only Florida in scoring offense. That’s the type of matchup LSU handles well (See: Clemson and Florida).
In Columbia, this might get a little hairy for LSU as it did last year. In Tiger Stadium off a bye week? LSU should be OK. Garrett Nussmeier’s health could be a factor here, but without any knowledge of that, I’ll stick with feeling good about LSU.
3. At Vanderbilt
This is the most winnable of LSU’s three remaining road games. Vanderbilt has played very well again this year. The Commodores are a perfect 5-0 with wins over Virginia Tech and South Carolina on the road. It’s about to get real, though. Vandy’s next four are at Alabama, LSU, Missouri and at Texas.
Diego Pavia and his offense are currently second in the SEC in scoring offense at 49 points per game. Like with Green and Arkansas, LSU has a talent advantage here, but it’s just not a game you can try to win 20-17. LSU’s offense will have to show up in Music City to win.
4. Texas A&M
The Aggies are 4-0 for the first time since 2018. Mike Elko’s team won a shootout in South Bend and a slugfest against Auburn to get there. Marcel Reed threw for 360 at Notre Dame, and the Aggie defense held Auburn to 177 yards and 10 points. That’s two very different ways to win a ballgame.
Reed torched LSU on the ground last season, but that probably doesn’t matter much as LSU now knows he’s the starter and has significantly better personnel on defense.
In College Station, I wouldn’t like LSU’s chances much against A&M. It’s in Tiger Stadium. My working theory is that LSU is going to be a handful in that stadium for the remaining three SEC teams set to visit.
5. At Oklahoma
Brent Venables has another good defense in Norman. The Sooners are second in the SEC in total defense at 207.5 yards per game. They’re second in the league in sacks and have the best third down defense in the country by a pretty wide margin. It’s tough to see LSU doing much against that unit.
On the other side, John Mateer, before his broken hand, was second in the country in total offense at 351.3 yards per game.
In Norman, you figure Oklahoma will move the ball. Can LSU’s offense do the same? Not playing like it did in September, but that game is eight weeks away.
6. At Alabama
Something changed with Ty Simpson after the loss in Tallahassee. He really played great against ULM and Wisconsin and carried that over to Athens where he threw for 276 yards and a pair of scores to lead that win. Most of Georgia’s success against the Alabama defense was on the ground. Florida State ran for 230 against the Tide. We know LSU isn’t going to be able to replicate that.
It makes the trip to Tuscaloosa look very, very daunting. I think it’s the toughest game left on the schedule.
More LSU Sports
